Newsletter #438— March 25, 2026

by Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

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Highlighted Links

A few suggestions about links that we think are especially interesting.

• The Hyper-Polarization Threat
  We Have Reached End-Stage Polarization — An exceptionally good article assessing where we are in the hyper-polarization spiral and offering reasons to believe that things are starting to trend in the opposite direction.
• US Politics
  Independents of America Unite! — An explanation of one of the big obstacles to building a less partisan political center -- it is hard to organize a group that’s averse to affiliation. But independents’ uncoordinated approach is self-defeating.
• Israel / Hamas War
  The Delusion of Being 'Anti-War' — A sharp critique of the dangerous confusion between opposing violence and refusing to confront those who initiate it.
• Artificial Intelligence
  Superintelligence is already here, today — An extensive and well-reasoned analysis of the far-reaching implications of what AI is going to allow us to discover.
• Artificial Intelligence
  Don’t Call It ‘Intelligence’ — An important contribution to our efforts to understand AI. This one distinguishes between machines that answer questions and people who ask questions and then make use of the answers.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  This Is the Moment Adam Smith Has Been Waiting For — In light of our frequent essays on the value of the invisible hand and the dangers of the invisible fist, an article explaining Smith's big ideas and how they have been misinterpreted.
• US Politics
  Trump Voters Weren't Wrong. — At a time when it's fashionable on the left to assume that Trump supporters don't know anything about anything, a reminder that they have gotten a lot of the big things right.

Reader Suggested Links

Highlighting links suggested by our readers. Please send us links to things that you find useful.

• Peacebuilding
  Samantha Power, former US Ambassador to UN: Closing USAID was soft power suicide — “The destruction of USAID is not only one of the cruelest acts that I've seen in my career but, of course, also one of the dumbest.” -- Samantha Power
• Culture and Religion
  What “Western Civilization” Really Means — More food for thought as we try to understand the nature and ramifications of the ongoing debate over the meaning and value of "Western Civilization."
• Israel / Hamas War
  How the Islamic Republic Infiltrates Western Societies — The open information systems of liberal democracies were built to protect freedom. They are now among the primary tools used to attack it.
• Israel / Hamas War
  Made in Moscow — Amid our justified concern about the many different sources of disinformation, a reminder that we should not discount the influence of hostile foreign powers.
• Saving Democracy
  Making Democracy Interesting: Tips from TV, Podcasts, Science Fiction, and Online Creators — A conversation with accomplished storytellers from a wide array of mediums about how they bring democracy issues to their audiences in creative ways.
• Israel / Hamas War
  Terms of Engagement – The Bombs to Ballots Fantasy: Can the Iran War Lead to Democracy? — Harvard Radcliffe Institute Fellow and Boston College Associate Professor Ali Kadivar joins Terms of Engagement hosts Archon Fung and Stephen Richer to discuss the prospects for democracy in Iran now that the country is at war with the U.S. and Israel.
• Leadership
  Rebalancing Democracy’s Leadership Pipeline — Funders seeking greater impact should pay closer attention to the caliber of the leaders who organize communities, shape public understanding, and govern between elections.

Colleague Activities

Highlighting things that our conflict and peacebuilding colleagues are doing that contribute to efforts to address the hyper-polarization problem.

• Peacebuilding
  Peace Is Worth It: So What Can Funders Do Right Now? — Catherine Thompson and Istra Fuhrmann of the Peace and Security Funders Group authored an op-ed published by Inside Philanthropy outlining how funders can make a real difference resourcing peace and security right now.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  Democracy 2040: A vision of the future — Could we create ways for citizens to have a much bigger say in governance without having to spend too much time on it, and also see the results? Gideon Lichfield thinks we could.
• Bridge Building
  Bridge Builders’ Handbook: A guide to building bridges across divides — This handbook from Network Weaver helps you to think like a Bridge Builder; to find ways to solve problems, strengthen relationships and build more connected communities.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  The Pro-Democracy Narrative Playbook — A broad swath of the U.S. population is open to a new narrative that promotes democracy. That narrative is called “Freedom Matters” and is grounded in core values like freedom, fairness, and fearlessness.
• Civil Society
  What can grow from common ground? — In small towns across the country, ordinary people are coming together to solve ordinary problems. They’re dialing down national flash points and doing what they can, across lines of difference, to make their lives better.
• Artificial Intelligence
  AI Policies and Uses to Promote Greater Alignment with Peace Principles and Goals — Notre Dame's Peace Policy's February issue provides six perspectives on how advocates, practitioners, and scholars should approach AI policies and uses to promote greater alignment with peace principles and goals.
• Peacebuilding
  The Strategic Blind Spot: How Neglecting Peacebuilding Undermines Global Security — The Civil Society Platform for Peacebuilding and Statebuilding (CSPPS) published a new paper that argues that deprioritizing peacebuilding weakens both domestic and international resilience.
• Constructive Communication
  Co-Creating Desired Futures: The Gatherings — When we see the world crumbling with disconnection and distrust, we wonder: what could take root beneath the ruins of these broken systems? We believe a better future is possible -- and we wrote a screenplay to show what it might look like.
• Non-Violence
  The Minneapolis Model — Scott Nakagawa reflects on how Minneapolis resisted a federal occupation and what the pro-democracy movement should learn from this experience.
• Peacebuilding
  Donna Hicks – Harvard Weatherhead Center for International Affairs — A conflict resolution specialist who developed the "Dignity Model" for peacebuilding, arguing that dignity violations have profound effects on our brains and nervous systems and thereby shape how we respond to conflict.
• US Politics
  The Political Center Is a Myth: Why Consultants Are Misreading the American Voter — David Beckemeyer talked with Frank A. Spring, Chief of Research at Altam Insight, who says Democrats aren't too extreme, they're just invisible.

News and Opinion

From around the web, more insight into the nature of our conflict problems, limits of business-as-usual thinking, and things people are doing to try to make things better. (Formerly, Beyond Intractability in Context.)

• Artificial Intelligence
  Local governments could deploy AI for good. Here’s how. — As we struggle with AI's many potential downsides, we ought to cultivate its upsides. This article from two urban innovation experts is an example of how to do that.
• Psychological Complexity
  The Cult of Fragility: Why Stoicism Beats Modern Victimhood — An argument for emphasizing strength rather than weakness when confronting people who say and do things that you find objectionable.
• Israel / Hamas War
  The anti-antisemitism movement is failing — For those looking for effective ways of counteracting the explosion of hatred and anti-Semitism that followed October 7 -- a thought-provoking critique of ongoing efforts.
• Class Inequity
  The College-Educated Working Class — A thought-provoking review of Noam Scheiber’s new book: Mutiny: The Rise and Revolt of the College-Educated Working Class.
• Psychological Complexity
  Your Marriage Has a Third — Another good reason for limiting our use of ever-present smartphones.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Catalysts of Agency — For a time in which so many of us are so distrustful of large institutions, an important reminder that functional institutions are a big part of what gives us the ability to make things better.
• Psychological Complexity
  A Word for Our Troubled Times — An intriguing essay reflecting on the outsized influence of the word "grievance."
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  The Restoring the West Manifesto — An opening essay outlining plans for an ambitious new cluster of Substack newsletters focused on identifying and protecting key aspects of Western civilization that are in danger of being lost.
• Artificial Intelligence
  Being Human Is Cool Again — A hopeful story that many of us are rediscovering the value of good old-fashioned everyday relationships -- relationships that are not mediated by or substituted by high-tech tools.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  Centrists of the World Unite — At a time when so many are trying to mobilize the extremes of the left and the right, a review of a book that is trying to mobilize the center
• Education
  Why Polling Higher Education’s Winners Alone Misses the Mark — For those trying to understand higher education's impact on society and its declining public trust, an important reminder to look at the people the system left behind.
• Psychological Complexity
  Six-Chart Sunday – The Rorschach Republic — More interesting charts highlighting the many dimensions of our hyper-polarized politics.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  What Early Liberals Knew, We'll Remember — An introductory post announcing a new newsletter liberalism.org -- the group that believes that the benefits of an inclusive and prosperous society are open to all those who will defend them. They intend to do just that.
• Constructively Addressing Complex Issues
  Why Can't People Agree on a Shared Set of Facts? — Nir Eyal on the power of belief, the atheist's case for prayer, and the origins of self-confidence.
• Psychological Complexity
  How Metrics Make Us Miserable — A thoughtful critique of the many downsides of metrics -- things that count can't be counted and things that can be counted don't count.

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About the MBI Newsletters

Two or three times a week, Guy and Heidi Burgess, the BI Directors, share some of our thoughts on political hyper-polarization and related topics. We also share essays from our colleagues and other contributors, and every week or so, we devote one newsletter to annotated links to outside readings that we found particularly useful relating to U.S. hyper-polarization, threats to peace (and actual violence) in other countries, and related topics of interest. Each Newsletter is posted on BI, and sent out by email through Substack to subscribers. You can sign up to receive your copy here and find the latest newsletter here or on our BI Newsletter page, which also provides access to all the past newsletters, going back to 2017.

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