Newsletter #451 — May 5, 2026

by Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

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Highlighted Links

A few suggestions about links that we think are especially interesting.

• Social / Economic Complexity
  In Conversation with George F. Will — Niall Ferguson's talk at the George Will award ceremony -- an exceptionally thoughtful and well-grounded analysis of the contemporary polycrisis.
• Interstate War
  I Played Putin in a War Game. The Most Dangerous Period May Be Coming. — Sophisticated (and as realistic as possible) war games can provide us with one of the best available assessments of an adversary's likely reaction to particular strategic choices.
• Interstate War
  The Right Way to Talk About War — An essay highlighting the fact that, in the past, US Presidents have devoted considerable effort to explaining and justifying any military actions that they might undertake -- something that President Trump has not done.
• Artificial Intelligence
  The Social Edge of Intelligence — AI doesn’t really “think.” Rather, it remembers how we thought together. And we’re about to stop giving it anything worth remembering.
• Peacebuilding
  Political Campaigns Have No Idea What’s About to Hit Them — A review of some of the latest research into the many ways in which AI technology is being applied to electoral politics.
• Psychological Complexity
  When Rationalization Turns Deadly — An argument that the creative rationalization that goes into finding excuses for our bad behavior can amplify the threat posed by that behavior.
• Terror
  Terrorism is working, and that should terrify all of us. — For those who may have forgotten just how much of our recent history has been dominated by the fear of terrorism (and the war against terrorism) -- a reminder that the threat is ongoing.

Reader Suggested Links

Highlighting links suggested by our readers. Please send us links to things that you find useful.

• Social / Economic Complexity
  Why Socialism Cannot Work. Ever. Mathematically. — For supporters of socialism, a simple, well-argued, and highly persuasive critique.
• Artificial Intelligence
  What AI changes about 'Viewpoint Diversity' — An assessment of an intriguing idea -- the possibility that AI may expose students to a broader viewpoint diversity than they commonly receive in tightly structured educational settings.
• Artificial Intelligence
  Silicon Valley Is Bracing for a Permanent Underclass — Thoughts about what is, from a conflict perspective, a terrifying possibility -- that technological advance will create large numbers of unneeded, superfluous people.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  The Ethnic Cleansing No One Mentions When Talking About Israel — A big part of the history of the Middle East that nobody talks about -- the systematic expulsion of virtually all Jews from Middle Eastern countries that their families had lived in for centuries.
• Class Inequity
  When Populism Can Be Good — Populism can be a positive force when focused on building a pluralistic society that works and a negative force when it embodies hostility toward both minorities and pluralism.
• Hate Mongering
  The Southern Poverty Law Center Is a Fundraising Front & Everyone Knows It — Regardless of whether the SPLC is ultimately convicted, its recent indictment offers an example of the ways in which bad-faith interest groups can drive the hyper-polarization spiral.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  My Vision For A Post-Trump America — From Francis Fukuyama, thoughts about the things that we could do to build a better post-Trump America.

Colleague Activities

Highlighting things that our conflict and peacebuilding colleagues are doing that contribute to efforts to address the hyper-polarization problem.

• Theories of Change
  How to Change the World — Erica Chenoweth and Ranjay Gulati answer questions based on their extensive study of revolutions and insurrections.
• Civil Society
  Heather Gerken is Flipping the Script at the Ford Foundation — Welcome news from Daniel Stid about his conversation with the Ford Foundation's new president Heaather Gerken, who is committed to scrupulous nonpartisanship in supporting democracy, elections, and the rule of law.
• Violence
  The Security Map — The Security Map by the Impact Project is one of the most comprehensive datasets on violent threats to America’s public servants.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  The Forest of Enough — A story of what becomes possible when we receive what we need.
• Civil Society
  How to Build a Civic Renaissance, Starting with Yourself — Alexandra Hudson reflects on what she has learned from two communities that rejected political division and tried to rebuild civic life.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Which U.S. regions are bowling alone?: The regional geography of social capital — This map, compiled by Nationhood Lab, calculates a county’s social capital based on the density of ten types of associational institutions – including bowling leagues, churches, sports clubs, civic organizations, and labor unions, among others.
• Theories of Change
  Faster Than Authoritarianism: Rapid Response as a Frontline Strategy for Democracy Defense — Authoritarianism relies on speed, confusion, and exhaustion. Faced with this reality, rapid response has become the most necessary and obvious frontline response for democracy defense.
• Bridge Building
  Impact Story: At first I struggled with bridging, then it gave me new energy — This is the fourth story in a series about the Othering & Belonging Institute's Bridging for Democracy project. What they are finding is an antidote to authoritarianism.
• Non-Violence
  Eight Million Protestors and No Kings: The Case for Showing Up — Thoughts on the likely effectiveness of the "No Kings" protests.
• Theories of Change
  Block and Build: Philanthropy’s Fight Club — How a coalition of American grant makers decided to stop funding the status quo and start funding the barricades and why Europe is still stuck writing polite grant applications while Rome burns.
• Civil Society
  Faith as a Civic Counterweight in the Southeast: A Philanthropic Case for Investing in Faith‑Based Civic Formation — Faith-based organizing is a driver of civic action in the Southeast. So foundations should use faith-based organizations to enhance pro-democracy efforts in the region.
• Constructive Communication
  Narrowing the ‘Perception Gap’ through Civic Education — Georgetown’s Civic Education Research Lab found dramatically positive results from using More Like US's perception gap materials to reduce partisan hostility and anxiety around civil discourse, among other positive outcomes.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Think Tanks Have Defeated Democracy — An argument that "think tanks" undermine democracy by relying upon opinion polling and the technocratic social sciences instead of the voices of ordinary people to make decisions.
• Violence
  Learning from the WHCD Assassination Attempt — Look to alienation, not just partisanship, and beware inflated measures of support for violence.
• Non-Violence
  Nonviolent Action Against Democratic Erosion: The United States in Comparative Perspective — This report examines the effectiveness of nonviolent action movements in supporting democratic resilience globally, offering key takeaways for combating accelerating democratic erosion in the US and abroad.
• Civil Society
  Terms of Engagement – American Birthright: The Constitution, Citizenship, and Immigration — Penn University Professor Emeritus Rogers Smith joins Terms of Engagement hosts Archon Fung and Stephen Richer to discusses birthright citizenship.
• Artificial Intelligence
  AI for Democracy Movements: Toward a New Agenda — A new report summarizes key insights from the Nonviolent Action Lab’s December 2025 convening on how artificial intelligence can empower pro-democracy movements.

News and Opinion

From around the web, more insight into the nature of our conflict problems, limits of business-as-usual thinking, and things people are doing to try to make things better. (Formerly, Beyond Intractability in Context.)

• Nihilists
  Why shoplifting is bad — For a time in which shoplifting is increasingly seen as just an innocent form of political protest, a well-reasoned counterargument.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Ben Shapiro: This Is What Happens When Institutions Fail — There is general agreement that pretty much every US institution is failing to deliver on its mandate. This article offers ideas for remedying the situation.
• Race / Anti-Racism
  Anti-racism isn’t morality. It’s a power play. — A thought-provoking critique of antiracism programs that looks at the ways in which these programs alter societal power relationships (and the distribution of resources that goes with those relationships).
• Artificial Intelligence
  Sam Altman Wants to Know Whether You’re Human — A possible solution for those worried about the fact that the Internet has become populated with fake, politically motivated mobs working to advance the interests of their secret creator.
• US Politics
  In Arizona, Democrats and Republicans are banding together for one reason — An exploration into the type of opposition that efforts to establish an independent, third-party in the United States must overcome.
• Education
  Universities have a new mantra. Democrats, take note. — An assessment of the political implications of higher education's efforts to recover its lost public trust.
• Family / Gender / LBGTQ+
  To Save the West, Build and Uphold Families — From Restoring the West, a project devoted to helping Western Civilization live up to its ideals, a reminder of the critical importance of strong families.
• US Politics
  The Supreme Court’s not-so-sinister ‘shadow docket’ — Answers, for those who wondered what the SCOTUS' "Shadow Docket" controversy is all about and whether it's as serious as many people claim.
• Psychological Complexity
  The moderately easy problem of consciousness — A surprisingly confident look at one of the great mysteries of life -- the nature and origins of our existence as conscious beings.
• Left / Right Conflict
  Lawmakers want to force Californians to take anti-hate speech training — News that there are still powerful champions of "woke" efforts to combat hate.
• Class Inequity
  Inside the Democratic Civil War Over Billionaire Power — An exploration of the battle between Democrats who what to exploit billionaires as a source of revenue that doesn't anger significant numbers of voters, and those who want to cultivate billionaires as a source of political revenue and support.
• Artificial Intelligence
  Reading is magic — A reminder that mass literacy is what enabled humanity to escape the servitude that characterized peasant life, and a warning about what will happen if we let AI do our reading for us.
• Family / Gender / LBGTQ+
  How American Dads Became the Parents Their Fathers Never Were — Amid all of the worry about deteriorating family structures, good and surprising news, young men are becoming better fathers.
• Artificial Intelligence
  AI Is Cannibalizing Human Intelligence. Here’s How to Stop It. — From a neuroscientist, who conducted research into artificial versus human intelligence -- a surprising argument that we’ve been worrying over the wrong things.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  The Tyranny of the Complainers — A short essay about a simple and very important idea -- the notion that the course of conflict is largely driven by a few very active and motivated "squeaky wheels."
• Freedom of Speech 
  Why Substack Is Right Not to Ban Andrew Tate — A story about how Substack (the platform that hosts this newsletter) is struggling with free speech issues.

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About the MBI Newsletters

Two or three times a week, Guy and Heidi Burgess, the BI Directors, share some of our thoughts on political hyper-polarization and related topics. We also share essays from our colleagues and other contributors, and every week or so, we devote one newsletter to annotated links to outside readings that we found particularly useful relating to U.S. hyper-polarization, threats to peace (and actual violence) in other countries, and related topics of interest. Each Newsletter is posted on BI, and sent out by email through Substack to subscribers. You can sign up to receive your copy here and find the latest newsletter here or on our BI Newsletter page, which also provides access to all the past newsletters, going back to 2017.

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