Newsletter #448 — April 23, 2026

by Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

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Highlighted Links

A few suggestions about links that we think are especially interesting.

• Social / Economic Complexity
  A Pillar of the Economics Establishment Admits That It Was Wrong — It's news anytime a major institution decides and is willing to state publicly that its past policies were a mistake.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  The Peoples of America — An enlightening look at the long shadow cast by the differing environmental conditions in which societies and cultures evolve.
• Interstate War
  We’re Sleepwalking Into a Taiwan Disaster — Taiwan is one of the very few suppliers of high-end computer chips. This makes it a very tempting target for Chinese aggression and a place that the United States simply must defend.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  One of These Trump Threats Is Not Like the Others — Even when we try to look at Trump's actions in Iran in the most sympathetic light possible, we find his threats to utterly destroy Iranian civilization incomprehensibly horrendous -- threats that deserve universal condemnation.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  History Is Running Backwards — An important challenge to those who believe that the arc of history will inevitably bend toward peace, justice, and the beliefs embedded in the democratic ideal.
• Interstate War
  Nuclear Powers, Conventional Wars — We used to think that nuclear weapons and the system of mutually assured destruction was enough to prevent war between major powers. This article explains why that view is proving incorrect.
• Disinformation
  Move 37 and the Coming Mindhack — An article about an especially big AI mega-worry -- the manipulative potential of AI-driven propaganda.

Reader Suggested Links

Highlighting links suggested by our readers. Please send us links to things that you find useful.

• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  For Kushner and Witkoff, C.E.O. Diplomacy Is No Longer Working — An update on the successes and failures of Trump's approach to diplomacy.
• Non-Violence
  Students' Right to Protest Comes From the Civilization They Reject — The suggestion that those opposed to Western Civilization ought to take the time to understand its many contributions before engaging in efforts to destroy it
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Debunking Seven Myths About the Iran War — For those who want to hear the other side of the story, a critique of what has, by many on the left and the right, become conventional wisdom regarding ongoing Mideast violence.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Why the Iran negotiations went nowhere. For now. — A more culturally and politically nuanced look into the negotiations aimed at ending the war in Iran.
• Trust / Trust Earning
  Intellectuals are F*cking Idiots — An explanation of why so much of the world has lost faith in experts and expertise. Experts need to start re-earning that trust.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Pope Leo Ignores Christian and Jewish Genocide in Algeria — A critical article highlighting the moral inconsistencies (and often hypocrisy) associated with the Pope's comments on Iran and other issues.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  A KGB operative warned us about the Israel narrative. — A story about the way in which information warfare has been waged against Israel (with major implications for those trying to protect their societies from similar attacks).

Colleague Activities

Highlighting things that our conflict and peacebuilding colleagues are doing that contribute to efforts to address the hyper-polarization problem.

• Effective Problem-Solving
  How to Argue in Outer Space — A perceptive article highlighting the critical role that conflict handling skills play in manned space exploration.
• Civil Society
  How the Just Citizens Experiment Will Begin—and How You Can Help Build It — This series marks the beginning of a live experiment. Not a commentary on politics or a newsletter of information, but an attempt to build something new: a citizen-led system for practicing self-government in a modern age.
• Non-Violence
  Gen Z Protests Around the World: Success or Epic Fail? — A quick review, with links to more information, of many of the world's most significant, recent protests.
• US Politics
  The Far-Right Plot to Hijack the Constitution — and How to Stop It — A small, well-funded network is using the real $39 trillion debt as cover to rewrite our founding document. Here’s how the cross-partisan pro-democracy coalition must respond.
• Peacebuilding
  Mediators Beyond Borders International 2025 Impact Report — This report outlines MBBI's efforts to address how peace intersects with economic, environmental, health, education, and social justice issues.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  The Silence of the Cosmos and the Noise of the Moment — David Beckemeyer talks with Caleb Scharf about the profound cognitive shift astronauts experience when they look back at our planet from space and see a single, fragile system without borders. Can this be shared with those at home on our planet?
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  America Has More Common Ground Than You Think. It's Blossoming! — Join the Nationwide Deliberation Campaign to define the People's Agenda for Renewing American Democracy.
• US Politics
  Trump won with these voters. Now their support is shifting. — More In Common uses the Beyond MAGA dataset to explore how the President's coalition is responding to the Iran war.
• Artificial Intelligence
  Putting AI in the Peacebuilding Loop — Whether AI tools advance peacebuilding depends less on the sophistication of the data or its handling than on the mindful choices practitioners make about its use.
• Artificial Intelligence
  Intersection of tech governance, peace & security — How can peacebuilders play a more active role in shaping the regulation of technology platforms so that they build trust and collaboration, rather than deepen polarization and conflict?
• Superpower Conflict
  The Role of Middle Powers in the Global Disorder — If governments do not want to submit to the dictates of the major powers, they will have to develop new forms of cooperation. (This is a process in which the "middle powers" will need to play an important role.)
• Peacebuilding
  Global Funding Cuts: What have they meant for local peacebuilders? — This Peace Direct article highlights the impact of the 2025 foreign assistance cuts on local peacebuilders and the communities whose lives and security they support.
• Violence
  Developing New Mechanisms for Disarmament: Concept for a “COP for Weapons”? — A TODA policy brief outlining proposals to revitalize UN and ad hoc disarmament and arms-control mechanisms in order to build mutual reassurance among states.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  What Americans Really Want is an Opportunity to Make a Difference — The Beacon Project's first report offers a major advance in our understanding of what can unite Americans.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  The Work of Renewing Our Civil Contract (Part 2) — Terry Kyllo, from Paths to Understanding, reflects on the role of trust in civic renewal and how trust-building takes time and effort. It can't be done quickly.
• Effective Problem-Solving
  Reframing in Mediation: What We Are Really Doing, and Why We Name It — This article argues that mediators can and should be more transparent about how and why they use reframing to help parties reach agreement.

News and Opinion

From around the web, more insight into the nature of our conflict problems, limits of business-as-usual thinking, and things people are doing to try to make things better. (Formerly, Beyond Intractability in Context.)

• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  How Trump Can Wrap Up the War — An explanation of the strategy that Trump seems to be following in Iran (and why it's quite possible that it will succeed).
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Trump Ditched Hearts and Minds in the Iran War — Reflections on the sharp strategic differences between Trump's war on Iran and earlier efforts to use counterinsurgency tactics in an attempt to transform Iraq and Afghanistan into successful democracies.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  How geography powers Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz, despite U.S. blockade — For those trying to understand the battlefield conditions that are shaping peace negotiations with Iran, a primer on what you need to know about the Strait of Hormuz.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  “Never Again” is starting to sound like a question. — A terrifying question for Jews and anyone also wishing to free the world from the scourge of demonization, dehumanization, and genocide.
• Authoritarianism
  The Post-Populist Dilemma — In the wake of Orbán's defeat, a thought-provoking article on the future populism (and efforts to transform it into a more constructive political movement).
• Authoritarianism
  Illiberalism Is Not Inevitable — A hopeful essay for those who thought that liberal democracy was dead and the various flavors of illiberal authoritarianism were the future.
• Authoritarianism
  The Four Lessons Liberals Should Consider After Orban’s Defeat — Useful food for thought as we try to understand the far-reaching implications of the recent Hungarian elections.
• US Politics
  Why Aren’t the Kids Out Protesting Against Trump? — An in-depth look at a surprising phenomenon -- the fact that participation in anti-Trump demonstrations by protest-age young people is sharply declining.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Evolution Explains the Human Condition — Evolution is one of the principal dynamics that determine the course of complex, large-scale, social systems. This article has much to teach us about this process.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Six-Chart Sunday – Six Important Stories You May Have Missed — Another series of surprising and informative charts. Notice, especially, the map of mysterious drone activity in the US, the comparison of recent US droughts, the booming stock market, and the national security role of CEOs.
• Psychological Complexity
  You are what you consume — An interesting counterpoint to widely held beliefs about the centrality of work in social life. This article suggests that consumption patterns are a big and underappreciated factor.
• Class Inequity
  This tax would rain a wealth of unintended consequences — For those looking for ways to tax the wealth of the superrich, a cautionary article highlighting ways in which such efforts could become counterproductive.
• Peacebuilding
  The UN’s Historically Selective Denunciation of Human Bondage — A critical look at the way in which the UN focuses on some of history's greatest violations of human rights while neglecting other similarly grotesque violations.
• Education
  The Weekly: Yale Takes A Long, Hard Look In The Mirror — Encouraging news that Yale (and hopefully other institutions) are trying to understand and correct the missteps responsible for the collapse of public trust in higher education.
• Artificial Intelligence
  Cyberwar’s New Frontier — From Foreign Affairs, a sober assessment of the far-reaching implications of revelations about just how vulnerable our computer systems are to AI-fueled cyberattack.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Why the Stock Market Makes No Sense Right Now — An attempt to explain why the stock market seems to have concluded that none of the scary things happening on the global stage will affect their investment's bottom line.
• Family / Gender / LBGTQ+
  The Medicalization of Adolescence — This is another one of those articles that offers an alternative view worth considering -- a view that challenges prevailing progressive orthodoxies.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Israel vs. the Religion of De-Escalation — A provocative challenge to one of the central tenets of the peacemaking field -- the notion that de-escalation efforts always advance the cause of long-term peace and justice.
• Progressive Left
  Seattle has a severe case of the Ayatollah Itch — For those who have trouble understanding why many people think that DEI programs have gone too far, a story about Seattle.
• Authoritarianism
  The Rise of the Incel Global Order — An interesting essay highlighting the outsized role that sex and gender-related conflicts are playing in shaping the contemporary world order (and disorder).

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About the MBI Newsletters

Two or three times a week, Guy and Heidi Burgess, the BI Directors, share some of our thoughts on political hyper-polarization and related topics. We also share essays from our colleagues and other contributors, and every week or so, we devote one newsletter to annotated links to outside readings that we found particularly useful relating to U.S. hyper-polarization, threats to peace (and actual violence) in other countries, and related topics of interest. Each Newsletter is posted on BI, and sent out by email through Substack to subscribers. You can sign up to receive your copy here and find the latest newsletter here or on our BI Newsletter page, which also provides access to all the past newsletters, going back to 2017.

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