Newsletter #416 — January 18, 2026

by Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

Subscribe to the Newsletter (Free)

Highlighted Links

A few suggestions about links that we think are especially interesting.

• Israel / Hamas War
  The Left’s Deafening Silence on Iran — Hard questions for those who claim to believe in freedom, equality, and the basic rights of women but remain silent about Iran's murderous repression of an uprising based on those principles.
• Interstate War
  Iraq Was Bad. This Is Absurd. — A critical look at Trump's ongoing effort to free Venezuela from Maduro's iron fist (based on comparisons with our earlier efforts to free Iraqis from Saddam Hussein.)
• Artificial Intelligence
  AI Will Create Work, Not Decimate It — Instead of looking at the adverse impact that AI is likely to have on many existing jobs, a look at how the new technology could enable displaced people to add value to the economy in new ways.
• Progressive Left
  Progressives Must Apologize (Before It’s Too Late) — For a time when everything is being blamed on Trump and his populist supporters, a welcome call for those on the left to acknowledge their role in the ongoing tragedy.
• Crime / Policing / Guns
  Why are federal agents gunning down Americans in the streets? — A rare and especially comprehensive effort to dig into the complex issues surrounding the violence in Minneapolis.
• US Politics
  Democrats Will Lose in 2028 Unless They Change Course Now — From David Plouffe, thoughts on things that Democrats could do to build a much broader and more enduring political majority.
• Immigration
  The Bankruptcy of the Democrats’ Elvis Presley Approach to Immigration — Amid the well-deserved criticism of ICE's extremely harsh tactics, hard questions for Democrats about the way in which they are approaching the immigration issue.
• Israel / Hamas War
  Trump’s Fateful Choice in Iran — Hard questions about encouraging Iranians to revolt against their country's murderous, theocratic rulers with promises of US military assistance -- assistance that the Trump administration may not be willing or able to provide.
• Israel / Hamas War
  Will Trump strike Iran? — From a detailed military perspective, a January 17 update on prospects for US military action in Iran.

Reader Suggested Links

Highlighting links suggested by our readers. Please send us links to things that you find useful.

• US Politics
  This Rural Congresswoman Thinks Democrats Have Lost Their Minds. She Has a Point. — More insight into why Democrats are having such trouble successfully pushing back against the many excesses of the Trump administration.
• Peacebuilding
  Trump killed DOJ 'peacemaker' unit used to defuse tense protests — Might Renee Nicole Good still be alive if CRS were still alive and operating reasonably close to full power? Former director Julius Nam thinks so.
• US Politics
  The Biggest Myth About Trump’s Base (And Why Many Believe It) — A thought-provoking effort to try to understand how Trump's core supporters are reacting to the things that his administration is doing.
• Peacebuilding
  The future of peacebuilding depends on bridging a growing generational divide — The report on a major effort to understand how Palestinian and Israeli peacebuilders are reacting to the ongoing tragedy and what they see as the best way forward.
• Progressive Left
  We Make Our Own Monsters — An article about the truly scary extremes that are emerging in the context of Trump's anti-immigration crackdown.
• Israel / Hamas War
  Failed suicide bomber's story exemplifies struggle for peace in Gaza —A short video that, in one heartbreaking story, explains the utter moral depravity of the worldview that Hamas is imposing on its subjects.
• US Politics
  The Theory That Gives Trump a Blank Check for Aggression — An article about one of the key rationalizations that is enabling the United States' transformation into an aggressive world power.

Colleague Activities

Highlighting things that our conflict and peacebuilding colleagues are doing that contribute to efforts to address the hyper-polarization problem.

• Developing a Unifying Vision
  What do we owe each other as Americans? — Report on a large-scale study of civic responsibility, comparing answers across party, age, and other divides.
• Peacebuilding
  Maing Peace “Possible” with William Ury — In this podcast, Bill Ury shares ideas about how journalists can tell stories about peace. What’s more, his insights on managing conflict can be applied anywhere from the UN to the boardroom to your own family. 
• Israel / Hamas War
  Iran’s Protests Are Following a Familiar Pattern — This time, though, they’re adding even more pressure to an already beleaguered regime.
• Saving Democracy
  Democracy Isn't All It's Cut Out to Be — The choice isn’t between perfect democracy and authoritarianism. It’s between a flawed system where you have a say in fixing it, and one where you don’t.
• Bridge Building
  Leaders of Pluralism! — Who's on the ground putting in the work in the bridge building world? What strategies should be pursued to reach pluralism? And are there disagreements in the bridge building sphere?
• Saving Democracy
  Here’s Why Only One-Third Of Americans Think Democracy Is Working in the U.S. — If all you see is endless division, why would you trust democracy?
• Media Reform
  When Local News Goes Quiet: What We Lose — and Why It Matters to Democracy — An explanation of the critical role that local news used to play in in our civic culture and why its loss is so important.
• Theories of Change
  How Community Organizing Can Stop Authoritarianism and Advance Justice — Hard-won victories for freedom and equality are under direct assault in the United States. Do we have the courage to unite and defeat an authoritarian regime? An argument that we do, but only if we organize strategically and effectively.
• US Politics
  The Attack on the Capitol: We Remember — Remembering, with moral clarity, how our democracy was attacked is essential. Five years later, it might be one of the most important things left to do.
• Communication Complexity
  Overcoming Information Chaos: An Interview with Danielle M. Reiff — Danielle Reiff shares key takeaways from her book, Overcoming Information Chaos in an interview with Glenn McMahan at Upriver Press.
• Non-Violence
  Inflatables, rainbow crosswalks, flooding snitch lines — creative action was off the charts in 2025 — In the face of rising authoritarianism, creativity is an enduring movement superpower that helped us break through the stranglehold of fear this year.
• Race / Anti-Racism
  The unbearable habit of denouncing unbearable whiteness — Is anything gained by kindling resentful backlash?
• Non-Violence
  Learning from Myles Horton’s legendary career in social movements — The famed educator and Highlander Folk School founder offers insights on living through the ups and downs of movement cycles.
• Networking
  Networks as Stabilizers: Leveraging Collective Possibility During Transitions — Networks are a source of resilience, resource-sharing, extended capacity, creativity, and mutual support. They remind us that no one has to navigate uncertainty alone.

News and Opinion

From around the web, more insight into the nature of our conflict problems, limits of business-as-usual thinking, and things people are doing to try to make things better. (Formerly, Beyond Intractability in Context.)

• Saving Democracy
  National Politics Is a Graveyard — A story about an independent movement dedicated to shifting from winner-take-all to proportional representation in legislative elections -- a promising reform that deserves serious consideration.
• Political Moderates
  The Sins of the Moderates — It is fashionable to criticize the "wing-nuts" at the extremes of both the left and the right. This article asks hard questions about the actions of the moderates in the center (who have so little influence).
• Race / Anti-Racism
  How DEI Caused a Military Recruitment Crisis — For those who have trouble understanding the backlash against DEI programs, a story about Biden administration policies at the Department of Defense.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Welcome to Chaos World — More food for thought for those trying to think through the dramatic geopolitical changes now underway.
• Superpower Conflict
  A World Without Rules — Another insightful perspective on the far-reaching implications of Trump's assault on international law.
• Superpower Conflict
  Total Defense for an Era of Total War — From Foreign Affairs, an eye-opening look at what it's really going to take to defend ourselves in the emerging era in which continuing "gray zone" and kinetic warfare pervades all aspects of society.
• Class Inequity
  A Deeper Look at America’s Anti-Establishment Moment — Another thought-provoking perspective on the big driver of global populism -- the rebellion against society's elites (including many in the conflict and peacebuilding field).
• The Hyper-Polarization Threat
  How “Us vs. Them” Takes Hold: Tribalism Across History — An historical analysis of the complex forces that, in society after society, drive hyper-polarization dynamics and divide societies into warring us-vs-them tribes.
• Peacebuilding
  What Peaceniks Like Me Get Wrong About Peace — From a famous and self-described peacenik, Bono, thoughtful self-criticism highlighting the things that he now believes that he got wrong.
• Superpower Conflict
  American Supremacy Is Over, and Something New Is Coming — A perspective from the global South about how the world political order is likely to be transformed by the dramatic changes that the US is making in its approach to the world.
• Race / Anti-Racism
  New Life for San Francisco’s Worst Idea — For those trying to understand the unpopularity of progressive policies, a story from San Francisco about what many see as the corruption of those policies.
• Effective Problem-Solving
  Americans Are Afraid of Authority — The persuasive argument that the United States' traditional aversion to giving anyone unchecked authority explains much of why we have so much trouble getting anything done.
• Culture and Religion
  Fifty People Control the Culture — The revealing exploration of the degree to which control of major socio-cultural institutions is being consolidated into the hands of a small number of cultural oligarchs.
• Theories of Change
  What Stephen Miller Gets Wrong About Human Nature — A perceptive exploration of the contrasting philosophical perspectives that lie at the core of Trump's foreign policy and most of the foreign policies that preceded it.
• US Politics
  There’s a Strange, Depressing Logic to Trump’s Foreign Policy — An interesting hypothesis for those trying to understand the motivations behind Trump's foreign policies -- policies that often look nonsensical and chaotic.
• Disinformation
  How academic propaganda is made — From an Israeli perspective, an explanation of some of the ways in which popular images regarding the war have been deliberately distorted by Hamas' propaganda tactics.
• Communication Complexity
  The Multi-Trillion-Dollar Battle for Your Attention Is Built on a Lie — More food for thought as we try to understand the complex forces that are trying to attract, and then profit from, our attention.
• Class Inequity
  White-Collar Workers Shouldn’t Dismiss a Blue-Collar Career Change — An interesting article that highlights the depth of the US class divide by proposing that underemployed/unemployed knowledge workers take up a blue-collar trade.
• Race / Anti-Racism
  Minnesota’s Fraud Should Be a Wake-Up Call for Democrats — Based on Minnesota's experience, an essay highlighting the critical importance of efforts to protect the social safety net from those who seek to abuse its benefits.
• Israel / Hamas War
  Iran: airstrikes and the intervention dilemma — In contrast to the illusion that the US military can easily strike down the bad guys in the world's trouble spots, an honest look at what military intervention actually entails.
• Superpower Conflict
  Energy Wars — A simple, but important, observation -- there is a strong correlation between the location of global hotspots and the location of major petroleum reserves.

Please Contribute Your Ideas To This Discussion!

In order to prevent bots, spammers, and other malicious content, we are asking contributors to send their contributions to us directly. If your idea is short, with simple formatting, you can put it directly in the contact box. However, the contact form does not allow attachments.  So if you are contributing a longer article, with formatting beyond simple paragraphs, just send us a note using the contact box, and we'll respond via an email to which you can reply with your attachment.  This is a bit of a hassle, we know, but it has kept our site (and our inbox) clean. And if you are wondering, we do publish essays that disagree with or are critical of us. We want a robust exchange of views.

Contact Us

About the MBI Newsletters

Two or three times a week, Guy and Heidi Burgess, the BI Directors, share some of our thoughts on political hyper-polarization and related topics. We also share essays from our colleagues and other contributors, and every week or so, we devote one newsletter to annotated links to outside readings that we found particularly useful relating to U.S. hyper-polarization, threats to peace (and actual violence) in other countries, and related topics of interest. Each Newsletter is posted on BI, and sent out by email through Substack to subscribers. You can sign up to receive your copy here and find the latest newsletter here or on our BI Newsletter page, which also provides access to all the past newsletters, going back to 2017.

NOTE! If you signed up for this Newsletter and don't see it in your inbox, it might be going to one of your other emails folder (such as promotions, social, or spam).  Check there or search for beyondintractability@substack.com and if you still can't find it, first go to our Substack help page, and if that doesn't help, please contact us. 

If you like what you read here, please ....

Subscribe to the Newsletter