Newsletter #315 — January 26, 2025
Reader Suggested Links
Highlighting links suggested by our readers. Please send us links to things that you find useful.
- Superpower Conflict
Konstantin Kisin: – The West's Decline is Self-Inflicted (Newspaper Interview) — From the perspective of someone who grew up in Soviet Russia, an essay about why he fell in love with the West and the reasons for the West's ongoing decline. - Israel / Hamas War
Hamas's narrative falls apart — A report that explains (based on information that is become available since the cease-fire) the ways in which Hamas was able to mislead so much of the world. - Israel / Hamas War
How Trump can remake the Middle East — From Dennis Ross, diplomat who has spent much of his life trying to somehow resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, thoughts on opportunities available to President Trump. - US Politics
Standing Up to Donald Trump’s Fear Tactics — Much of President Trump's power stems from his ability to threaten and intimidate anyone who might stand in the way of his plans. This article explores ways of resisting such pressures. - US Politics
Making Sense Out of the Chaos — A helpful overview of President Trump's initial actions with thoughts about whether or not he has the legal authority to do each thing. - US Politics
Trump will overplay his hand. Be ready for when he does. — For those alarmed by President Trump's aggressive efforts to implement his agenda, thoughts about how best to respond in the likely event that he, in some way, goes too far. - Israel / Hamas War
Matti Friedman: Israel’s Prisoner’s Dilemma — A thoughtful article that does much to help us understand, from Israel's perspective, the ongoing cease-fire and the lopsided exchange of prisoners and hostages. - Progressive Left
The Hills the Left Will Die On — A critical look at the rise of the progressive left and, now, it's decline, with thoughts about whether or not it is going to be willing to recalibrate its positions in light of public opinion.
Colleague Activities
Highlighting things that our conflict and peacebuilding colleagues are doing that contribute to efforts to address the hyper-polarization problem.
- Peacebuilding
Making Peacebuilding a First-Order Issue: Learning From the Past and Applying it to the Future — We know peacebuilding is the answer to conflict—so why do we, as a field, have such a hard time making that case to funders, policymakers, and the public? Liz Hume talks with John Marks. - Hyper-Polarized Communication
What We Don’t Know Because of Polarization — Partisanship makes most media useless for understanding "grooming gangs," and new research shows psychologists self-censor evidence which suggests "taboo" conclusions. - Race / Anti-Racism
Martin Luther King Jr. and the American Political Tradition — From Daniel Stid, thoughtful reflections on Martin Luther King's wisdom on the occasion of Donald Trump's inauguration. - Theories of Change
Defending Democracy with Humor and Dilemma Action Tactics — A YouTube video outlining a strategy for placing authoritarian regimes in a bind where any response they make will either backfire or highlight the absurdity of their oppression. By combining such tactics with humor, these movements can magnify their impact. - Developing a Unifying Vision
Champions of Compassion — Greatness is about uplifting others. The Ali Compassion Pledge, inspired by the Muhammad Ali Index, is your call to act with kindness, justice, and compassion. - Peacebuilding
Got Conflict? Let’s Talk Peacebuilding! Podcast — Two new episodes discuss what is driving record-breaking global violent conflict, and more importantly, what we can do to prevent and reduce violent conflict and build sustainable peace. - US Politics
“Blue Collar, Not Billionaires”: How We Build Coalitions that Win — Long-term organizing, deep canvassing, and broad coalitions fueled wins for working families across the US. Rural America isn’t MAGA country. Housing, health, climate, affordability and despair – hurt people in small towns and big cities alike. - Escalation & Violence Limiting Projects
We Can't Talk to People That Way — If we can’t even communicate what an authoritarian is, how do we stop one from taking power? - Media Reform
Conversation on The Social Dilemma - Part 1 — What is your relationship with social media? Do you love it? Do you hate it? Do you avoid it? What if there are good reasons to love it, hate it, and avoid it - all at once? - Theories of Change
2025 and Beyond: Why Reflection Is Key to Reducing Political Toxicity — From the Builders, an article on how we all play a role in reducing toxicity -- or increasing it. Which do you want to do? - US Politics
Republicans and Democrats play a role in making each other more extreme — Contempt and aggression can induce the stances and behaviors that anger us. - Suppressing Opponents
Experience with Hostility Increases Worry Among Local Officials, Negatively Impacting Willingness to Engage in Political Processes — Report finding that demographic factors and personal experiences with hostile incidents are connected to concerns about hostility, as well as the chilling effect these trends can have on local democracy. - Theories of Change
Regenerative Innovation Ecosystems — Regenerative Innovation Ecosystems focus on building coalitions of diverse organizations or departments to foster systemic innovation rooted in regenerative principles and practices. - US Politics
Even in Victory, Republicans Should Listen to Their Opponents — From the Builders, an article about the need to understand and respect our fellow Americans’ concerns. When we fail to do those things, we’ll find that we deepen divisions and amplify contempt. - De-Escalation Strategies
To Overcome Our Divides, We Must Try to Understand the Other Side’s Anger — An important argument for empathetically trying to understand (rather than discount) the anger that others feel toward your community. - Culture and Religion
Answering Tough Questions About Promising Revelations — More in Common answers some tough questions about their report on American religious life. - Developing a Unifying Vision
The Quiet Tragedy of a World Without True Community — From David Beckemeyer, How the Pursuit of "More" is Eroding Our Sense of Community and Fulfillment. - Class Inequity
Learning (Again) From Les Leopold — Chip Hauss reflects on Les Leopold's presentation about his new book, Wall Street's War on Workers and how it suggests ways of dealing with divisions--and worse. - Authoritarianism
So You’re Worried About Autocracy — Eve Sneider and Jonathan Stray reflect on what we should do now if we are worried about autocracy. You can fight a politician but not your fellow citizens, they say. - Non-Violence
Can nonviolent struggle defeat a dictator? This database emphatically says yes — The Global Nonviolent Action Database details some 40 cases of mass movements overcoming tyrants through strategic nonviolent campaigns. - De-Escalation Strategies
The Dignity Movement in Action — The Students for Dignity team recently appeared on the School Conversations podcast to discuss using The Dignity Index to navigate challenging interactions and promote dignity on campuses nationwide.
News and Opinion
From around the web, more insight into the nature of our conflict problems, limits of business-as-usual thinking, and things people are doing to try to make things better. (Formerly, Beyond Intractability in Context.)
- Superpower Conflict
In a New Age of Empire, Great Powers Aim to Carve Up the Planet — Before we totally give up on efforts to reinvigorate the post-World War II world order, we ought to consider what's likely to replace it -- old-fashioned great power politics. - Developing a Unifying Vision
Make America Whole Again — From the Foundation Against Intolerance and Racism, creative thoughts about how a diverse new political coalition and a catastrophic natural disaster might help us reclaim the unity Martin Luther King Jr. envisioned. - Climate / Environment
From Idealism to Realism — From a leading climate scientist with more than 40 years of experience in the field, reflections on the planet's ongoing retreat from its commitments to address the climate change problem. - Israel / Hamas War
The Campaign Against 'Settler Colonialism' — A great interview with Adam Kirsch in which he critically describes his research into the origins and nature of anti-colonial theory and the far-reaching impact that it is having on society. - Culture and Religion
There are no pure cultures — An informative exploration of the complex ways in which differing cultural traditions are deeply intertwined with one another. - Race / Anti-Racism
To understand modern political polarization, you have to go back 53 years. — A retrospective look at the long shadow cast by the 1971 Griggs v. Duke Power Supreme Court case which removed conscious intent from the definition of discrimination. - Superpower Conflict
We Deserve Pete Hegseth — Written before Pete Hegseth confirmation as Secretary of Defense, this article provides an overview of the daunting challenges awaiting him. - Artificial Intelligence
Scaling up: how increasing inputs has made artificial intelligence more capable — Some answers for those still trying to understand how AI suddenly got so "smart." - Superpower Conflict
The Stable World Order Has Passed. What’s Next? — From the president of the World Economic Forum, his thoughts on what's next for a planet in the midst of rapid social, political, and economic change. - Social Complexity
Even This Year Is the Best Time Ever to Be Alive — Amid today's doom and gloom fears, an important reminder about the many ways in which the human condition is better than it has ever been. - US Politics
The Birth of Aspirational Populism — As those on the left try to understand how they so badly misunderstood the strength of Trump's support, an argument for paying more attention to the allure of genuine opportunity. - Reliable Problem Assessments
Major data revisions are coming — The continuing changing nature of society makes it hard to gather statistics that reliably track trends over the long-term. This article explains how this is done. - Race / Anti-Racism
Race Is a Spectrum. Sex Is Pretty Damn Binary — Really insightful article that starts with the observation that race is a social construct but sex is a biological reality. This has huge implications for the way in which we think about race and gender. - US Politics
My Decade with Donald Trump — From a journalist with exceptionally long and close access to the President Trump, an illuminating effort to help us better understand the man and his supporters. - US Politics
What Happened to Joe Biden the Moderate? — President Biden was elected as a moderate leader who could bring the country together. This essay explains how, instead, he alienated many of his supporters by pushing the country far to the left. - US Politics
Trump's 'Cabinet of the Cancelled' — An observation about President Trump's cabinet and an explanation of why they so strongly support his agenda -- they have been on the receiving and of the left's repression of criticism. - Media Reform
We need a Freedom of Information Act for Big Tech — An interesting proposal for limiting the insidious influence that so many tech companies have over our lives -- make those actions visible and turn them into a commercial liability. - Social Complexity
The World Is Getting Riskier. Americans Don’t Want to Pay for It. — An essay focused around the observation that modern democratic governments have become "an insurance company with an army" for a citizens wanting cheap protection from life's risks. - Superpower Conflict
Accidents, not Russian sabotage, behind undersea cable damage, officials say — Defusing superpower tensions requires a willingness to publicly admit when events that were earlier seen as acts of aggressive hybrid warfare actually turn out to have a benign explanation. - US Politics
Goodbye, ‘Resistance.’ The Era of Hyperpolitics Is Over. — In the context of the muted response of the Democratic Party to Trump's election, an argument that hyper-politics (if not polarization) is declining. - Developing a Unifying Vision
American Society Was Built for Populism, Not Elitism — The comparison between elite and populist forms of social and economic forms of social organization and an argument that America, by tradition, leans towards populism. - Race / Anti-Racism
DEI Is a Failure Because the Civil Rights Movement Wasn’t About Elite Diversity — A look at the conflict between those who seek to pursue racial justice by promoting diversity among elites and those who pursue more traditional vision of civil rights. - US Politics
Trump’s Plan to Crush the Academic Left — An overview of the way in which President Trump is trying to decisively defeat progressives -- politically, culturally, and socially. - Progressive Left
What the Left Did to Me and My Family — From a conservative, the story about how he and his family have been subjected to threats and intimidation. We must vigorously oppose such actions, regardless of which side is responsible. - Climate / Environment
Putting the Worst Green Ideas in the Dustbin of History — Amid all of the chaos and fury surrounding Trump administration climate policy, an argument that, in some surprising and important areas they are taking genuinely positive steps. - Race / Anti-Racism
Black and White Weren’t Always as Black-and-White as They Seemed — An insightful exploration of the complexities of race and racism that argues against efforts to classify people by race and for efforts to focus on eradicating true racism. - Saving Democracy
The Bomb Is Back as the Risk of Nuclear War Enters a New Age — For those who may have thought that the risk of nuclear war was a story for the history books, news that this terrifying threat is intensifying once again. We need to prioritize efforts to defuse it.
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About the MBI Newsletters
Two or three times a week, Guy and Heidi Burgess, the BI Directors, share some of our thoughts on political hyper-polarization and related topics. We also share essays from our colleagues and other contributors, and every week or so, we devote one newsletter to annotated links to outside readings that we found particularly useful relating to U.S. hyper-polarization, threats to peace (and actual violence) in other countries, and related topics of interest. Each Newsletter is posted on BI, and sent out by email through Substack to subscribers. You can sign up to receive your copy here and find the latest newsletter here or on our BI Newsletter page, which also provides access to all the past newsletters, going back to 2017.
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