Newsletter #442 — April 3, 2026

by Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

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Highlighted Links

A few suggestions about links that we think are especially interesting.

• US Politics
  No Learning Please, We’re Democrats! — From Ruy Teixeira [one of the founders of the excellent (and recently closed) Substack, the Liberal Patriot], an argument that the left needs to stop suppressing friendly criticism.
• Artificial Intelligence
  ‘Surveil, Govern and Control’: What Could Go Wrong? — A compilation with links to what experts are thinking about the ways in which AI-based omniscience could accelerate the slide toward some new, high-tech type of authoritarianism.
• Class Inequity
  How Can America Be So Miserable When It’s So Rich? — An extremely perceptive explanation of why class resentments in the US run so deep (despite the relatively prosperous circumstances of most citizens).
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Will Iran Turn to Terrorism? — After having spent decades fighting the long war on terrorism, it seems surprising that so little attention has been given to the possibility that terror will become a new front in the war with Iran.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Iran’s War Is Not Only With the West — A refresher course on the way in which Iranian aggression has affected Middle Eastern countries besides Israel.
• Non-Violence
  You’re Not Protesting Like Dr. King — A compare-and-contrast article that highlights the many ways in which contemporary protests are failing to take advantage of the hard-learned lessons of Doctor King and the civil rights era.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  There isn't always a "long arc" of morality — A sobering but helpful reminder that the arc of history does not automatically bend toward justice. If we want to avoid an unjust future, we have to be very careful about what we work for and how.

Reader Suggested Links

Highlighting links suggested by our readers. Please send us links to things that you find useful.

• The Nature of Complexity
  Six-Chart Sunday – Nobody Knows Nuthin’ (Spring 2026) — In case you needed convincing, a series of charts that demonstrate that the complex system in which we live is not very predictable.
• US Politics
  An Ally’s Guide to Understanding Trump — For those trying to understand President Trump's negotiating style, a surprisingly persuasive argument that there is a pretty solid method to his apparent madness.
• Race / Anti-Racism
  Is Systemic Racism a Thing of the Past? — From the Journal of Free Black Thought, a thought-provoking (and controversial) argument that culture, not bias, drives today's disparities.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Stop asking how the war ends. — A thought-provoking essay highlighting the importance of thinking about war in complexity-oriented terms (as distinct from a complicated approach which gives people the illusion that they can engineer their preferred outcome.)
• Education
  Stop Meeting Students Where They Are — An argument that college teachers ought to rediscover the virtues of rigorous and demanding teaching (rather than the cultivation of happy customers).
• Education
  We Are Being Taught by Fools - Harvard University Proves It — A highly critical look at the ways in which elite universities have responded to the ever-changing social and political pressures of recent decades.
• Immigration
  An extract from the book they don't want you to read - Suicide of a Nation — A quick peek at a controversial new book that tries to explain why so many are so alarmed by the dramatic changes that immigration is bringing to Western Europe.
• Interstate War
  The Corrupted Moral Logic of Modern War — An argument that the muddled way in which many, especially on the left, think about the morality of war is actually contributing to, rather than helping limit, its horrors.

Colleague Activities

Highlighting things that our conflict and peacebuilding colleagues are doing that contribute to efforts to address the hyper-polarization problem.

• US Politics
  Beyond MAGA: A Profile of the Trump Coalition — From More in Common, a highly detailed analysis of Trump voters which identifies four categories, each with distinct values and motivations: MAGA Hardliners, Anti-Woke Conservatives, Mainline Republicans, and the Reluctant Right.
• US Politics
  Beyond MAGA: Perceptions of Trump's Leadership — Another part of the multi-part series on Beyond MAGA, this one examines how the source of President Trump’s power is his ability to play different roles for different groups of supporters across his coalition.
• Communication Complexity
  The Bad News Echo-Chamber of Pro-Democracy Substack — An interesting effort to unpack the complex web of relationships that exist between key actors in the left-leaning sectors of the pro-democracy space.
• Hate Mongering
  Navigating the "Social Contagion" with Alison Sher — Are your media feeds reflecting reality or just manufacturing outrage? David Beckemeyer talks to Alison Sher about her new book on viral ideologies and the culture war.
• Effective Problem-Solving
  Logan County's Story of Change: Building a Bright Future (2026) — A "story of change" report for Logan County, OH, prepared by The Harwood Institute for Public Innovation in partnership with the United Way of Logan County and Honda.
• Saving Democracy
  DEMOCRACY REPORT 2026 Unraveling The Democratic Era? — A report from Varieties of Democracy (V-DeM) which says that America is facing “autocratization” at an unprecedented pace, marked by executive overreach, intimidation of media and dissenting voices, and declining trust.
• Education
  Terms of Engagement – Can Ideological Diversity Improve Campus Culture? — Professor Eitan Hersh, the inaugural director for Tufts University’s new Center for Expanding Viewpoints in Higher Education, wants to create a new campus atmosphere of “robust intellectual life, where norms of curiosity and goodwill reign.”
• Peacebuilding
  Keeping Peace on the Agenda: Civil Society in Times of Global Instability - Annual Report 2025 — The Civil Society Platform for Peacebuilding and Statebuilding (CSPPS) has published its 2025 annual report, outlining the progress that it has made in strengthening collective action, amplifying local voices, and advancing policy influence.
• Theories of Change
  USA Needs a Government of National Unity — An intriguing proposal that the United States should do what many other countries have done when faced with serious threats and deep political divisions -- form governments of national unity.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  The Meshwork of Relational Infrastructure — A resource for those who want to invest in and nurture networks of constructive advocates.
• Constructive Communication
  A Tale of Two Stories — An exploration of the two competing grand stories that dominate our time -- one that focuses on highlighting differences and a second that focuses upon building bridges.
• Saving Democracy
  Resources for for the Pro-Democracy Community — Developed by a team of lawyers and advocates, Democracy Forward is now making available a collection of legal tools that can be used to defend pro-democracy groups from lawfare attacks.
• Peacebuilding
  Nonprofit Toolkit: Resources for organizations facing government investigations — This toolkit offers best practices for responding to politicized government investigations.
• Theories of Change
  Why Nothing Changes—Even When Everyone Agrees Something Is Broken — The report on the Just Citizens experiment in rebuilding self-government.

News and Opinion

From around the web, more insight into the nature of our conflict problems, limits of business-as-usual thinking, and things people are doing to try to make things better. (Formerly, Beyond Intractability in Context.)

• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  The War Is Going Better Than You Think — For those who live in anti-Trump media bubbles in which the President is never portrayed as doing anything right, a counterbalancing argument that the war is actually going pretty well.
• Leadership
  America Needs a Trimmer — A perceptive argument for a third kind of leadership -- something better than technocrats or bold visionaries.
• Class Inequity
  David Goodhart on Why the Educated Elite Lost Touch with Democracy — An interview with the author of a perceptive and important book about the vast cultural divide that has arisen between our society's elites and the rest of the population.
• Culture and Religion
  TWAA: The West Is Worth Defending—and People Are Ready to Join — An update on the Restoring the West project and its attempt to defend "Western Civilization" in what it sees as a clash with other civilizations with other theories of governance.
• Media Reform
  Save us, Digital Cronkite! — Rare, extensive, and, hopefully, well-founded musings about the way in which AI might make it possible to create a new kind of media that rivals Walter Cronkite for trustworthiness.
• Interstate War
  America’s Best New Weapon in Iran Is a Drone Inspired by Iran — A truly surprising story. Years ago the Pentagon copied, improved upon, and started producing large numbers of its version of Iran's low cost drones. (The Lucas is now playing a major role in the ongoing war).
• Artificial Intelligence
  How Quatum Computing Works — As we contemplate the far-reaching way in which AI will impact our lives, a primer on the next big thing -- something that promises even more dramatic changes in the power of machines.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  The Illusion of Strategy — A provocative essay that tries to apply complexity theory to the understanding of armed conflict.
• Interstate War
  Six-Chart Sunday – The Art of War in the 21st Century — As we quickly slide toward a world in which large-scale war becomes probable rather than "unthinkable," a set of charts highlighting the rapid and dramatic changes occurring in the nature of war.
• US Politics
  Why Are So Many Democratic Politicians So Far Out of Touch? — A compilation of what political scientists are saying about the dynamics underlying the estrangement between Democratic Party leaders and so many of their hoped-for constituents.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  The Mideast pushed out the Muslim Brotherhood. Here’s where it landed. — A comparison of the contrasting fates of the Islamic extremist group, the Muslim brotherhood, in the Middle East and in Western Europe.
• Interstate War
  How Ukrainian drones paralyze the Russian invasion — An especially good article explaining how wars fought with drones are so different from other types of armed conflict.
• Interstate War
  The drone swarm in Louisiana is a warning about the future of war — A worrying article that makes it clear that the "drone wars" could quickly come to US soil.
• Class Inequity
  Elites and Democracy Part 1 — The first of a thought-provoking three-part essay series examining the troubled relationship between society's elites and grassroots citizens.
• De-Escalation Strategies
  The Democratic Case Against the Term "Far-Right" — From a Democratic perspective, an explanation of why it is not a good idea to demonize and dehumanize your political opponents with pejorative phrases like the "far right."
• Civic Education
  A Republic, If You Can Teach It — An important reminder that, before we can expect to "save our democracy," we have to teach people what it is, why it's important, and how it depends upon everyone's civic participation.
• Freedom of Speech 
  Don’t Cheer Too Hard for the Facebook Verdicts — A word of caution to those who think that big tobacco offers a promising precedent that we should apply to the harms associated with social media.
• Psychological Complexity
  Marc Andreessen’s Mistake — From David Brooks, an essay that argues that, "The ability to understand, recognize, and label your own emotions is a necessary part of living a fulfilling life."
• Artificial Intelligence
  The Innovation Trap — An essay exploring the likelihood that AI will enable us to do things that we really shouldn't do -- things that are so new that we haven't had a chance to prohibit them yet.
• Crime / Policing / Guns
  What Happens When You Pay Ex–Gang Members to Stop Crime? Ask Chicago. — A sad story about the ways in which some prominent urban peacebuilding projects are failing.

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About the MBI Newsletters

Two or three times a week, Guy and Heidi Burgess, the BI Directors, share some of our thoughts on political hyper-polarization and related topics. We also share essays from our colleagues and other contributors, and every week or so, we devote one newsletter to annotated links to outside readings that we found particularly useful relating to U.S. hyper-polarization, threats to peace (and actual violence) in other countries, and related topics of interest. Each Newsletter is posted on BI, and sent out by email through Substack to subscribers. You can sign up to receive your copy here and find the latest newsletter here or on our BI Newsletter page, which also provides access to all the past newsletters, going back to 2017.

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