Geopolitical Threat Monitors

7. Massively Parallel Roles & Tasks

This introductory article was written by ChatGPT at the direction of Heidi Burgess, who reviewed, edited, and approved the final content.
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July 15, 2026

Geopolitical threat monitors alert the public to dangers posed by hostile governments and other international actors. These threats include military aggression, cyberattacks, economic coercion, espionage, and covert efforts to manipulate political debate inside democratic countries. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, war and instability across the Middle East, and mounting tensions over Taiwan have made such concerns increasingly urgent. At the same time, intense polarization and governmental dysfunction have raised questions about whether Western democracies can make difficult decisions, sustain long-term policies, and cooperate effectively enough to defend themselves.

Some geopolitical threat monitors focus on attempts by foreign powers to exploit divisions within democratic societies. Russia, China, Iran, and other governments have used propaganda, disinformation, political influence, and cyber operations to weaken adversaries without engaging in conventional war. Carnegie researchers have examined how autocratic powers extend their influence beyond their borders and challenge the ability of other countries to determine their own political futures. Other monitors study military capabilities, vulnerable infrastructure, supply-chain dependence, or the possibility that conflict in one region could draw major powers into a much wider confrontation. Their warnings help governments and the public recognize that national security now depends on more than defending territorial borders.

Geopolitical monitors do not all recommend the same response. Writing after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz argued that democracies must resist aggression while also trying to avoid dividing the world into rigid Cold War-style blocs. Samantha Power has argued that democracies will not defeat autocracy through military strength alone. They must also demonstrate that democratic government can improve people’s lives, fight corruption, and offer a more attractive model of development, as she explained in “How Democracy Can Win.” From another perspective, Paul Gigot has warned that a resurgence of American isolationism could leave democratic allies more vulnerable and encourage aggressive rivals to test the limits of Western resolve.

These warnings also raise difficult questions about how democracies should defend themselves without sacrificing the values they are trying to protect. In “The Age of Amorality,” Hal Brands argues that preserving a liberal international order has often required democracies to use illiberal means, including cooperation with authoritarian governments and other morally troubling exercises of power. Such compromises may sometimes be strategically necessary, but they can also undermine liberal principles and produce serious unintended consequences.

For this reason, geopolitical monitoring should include analysts who challenge exaggerated accounts of democratic decline. Fareed Zakaria has emphasized that the United States continues to possess enormous advantages, including a large and innovative economy, strong alliances, influential institutions, and an unusually attractive society for immigrants and investment. In “The Self-Doubting Superpower,” he argues that Americans often underestimate their country’s enduring strength. Effective threat monitoring must therefore steer between complacency and alarmism. Its purpose is to help democratic societies understand real dangers, compare possible responses, and protect themselves without abandoning the openness and restraint that distinguish democracy from the authoritarian systems they oppose.

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This page was created by ChatGPT in response to this prompt. It was then reviewed, edited, supplemented and approved by Heidi Burgess. More information about how and why we are using AI in this way, and about the growing number of ways in which Beyond Intractability is using ChatGPT, Claude and other AI systems to generate content and build out the BI system, is available on our BI/AI Overview Page.