Genocide - Early Warning

  • "War on Terror" Used to Target Minorities: Report

    "Countries on the front line in the 'war on terror' are using the battle against extremists as a smokescreen to crack down on minority groups, an international human rights group said on Thursday. For the fourth straight year, Somalia, Iraq, Sudan and Afghanistan topped an annual index compiled by Minority Rights Group International (MRG) of countries where minorities are most at risk of genocide, mass killings or violent repression." -- from Website

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  • Arms Embargo

    One of the best ways to limit the destructiveness of a dangerous conflict is to block the flow of additional weapons into an area. Arms embargos attempt to do that.

    Beyond Intractability Essay

  • Assesing Risks of Genocide and Politicide

    "In 1998, in response to President's Clinton's policy initiative on genocide early warning and prevention, the author, a senior consultant with the Task Force, was asked to design and carry out a study that would use her own and other data sources to establish an empirically and theoretically grounded, data- based system for risk assessment and early warning of genocidal violence." -- from Website

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  • Assessing Country Risks of Genocide and Politicide in 2009

    Assesses the potential for genocide and politicide in 22 states throughout the world.

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  • Auschwitz Institute for Peace and Reconciliation

    "The Auschwitz Institute for Peace and Reconciliation (AIPR) is dedicated to building a worldwide community of policymakers with the tools and the commitment to address conflict before it turns into genocide." -- from Website

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  • Blood and Soil: A World History of Genocide and Extermination from Sparta to Darfur

    "For thirty years Ben Kiernan has been deeply involved in the study of genocide and crimes against humanity. He has played a key role in unearthing confidential documentation of the atrocities committed by the Khmer Rouge. His writings have transformed our understanding not only of twentieth-century Cambodia but also of the historical phenomenon of genocide. This new book - the first global history of genocide and extermination from ancient times - is among his most important achievements."

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  • Conflict Emergence Stage

    It is common for significant tensions or grievances to persist over long periods of time without resulting in a noticeable conflict. This essay explores the factors that transform such tensions into an active conflict.

    Beyond Intractability Essay

  • Conflict Mapping

    Conflict mapping is one approach to conflict assessment. Originally developed in the 1970s by Paul Wehr, it has been adapted and used by many scholars and practitioners since. Many others have developed their own conflict assessment "tools," with 100s of different categories. But Wehr's approach to complex mapping is one of the simpler and easier to use tools and is a good example of the kinds of things people should look at as they become engaged in or start to study a particular conflict.

    Beyond Intractability Essay

  • Cooling-Off Periods

    Escalation can sometimes be slowed or stopped by calling for a short-term "cooling-off" period during which time all the parties stop engaging and step back to look at the situation and how they might be able to proceed more constructively.

    Beyond Intractability Essay

  • Early Warning

    Based on similar efforts to predict natural disasters and crop yields, many have attempted to construct models to predict where conflict will erupt. This essay explores the difficulties in creating such a system.

    Beyond Intractability Essay

  • East and Central Africa: A Legacy of Deadly Political Violence and the Risks of its Recurrence

    The East and Central Africa region has experienced intense protracted conflict for decades characterized by insurgent groups, refugees, and munitions traveling across borders to propogate more conflict. Because of the high likelihood of East and Central African countries to fall into trends of deadly political violence, this article attempts to assess the risks of future genocides in the region.

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  • Genocide Prevention Project

    "The Genocide Prevention Project seeks to build the public will to call on the international community to take meaningful actions when 'early warning' indicators signal possible onset of mass-scale atrocity crimes, and to mobilize resources to avert or halt such ongoing crises and protect civilians from mass atrocity crimes. The focus is on public education and advocacy." -- from Website

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  • Genocide Watch

    Genocide Watch exists to predict, prevent, stop, and punish genocide and other forms of mass murder. We seek to raise awareness and influence public policy concerning potential and actual genocide. Our purpose is to build an international movement to prevent and stop genocide.

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  • Maintaining Oppression

    In this essay, the author considers factors that keep oppression in place including power, the social production of meaning, self-fulfilling prophecies and distorted relationships.

    Beyond Intractability Essay

  • Meta-Conflict Resolution

    Many conflict resolvers emphasize mediation, dialogue, or problem solving workshops as solutions to conflict. But intractable conflicts usually need a much more comprehensive approach. This article describes such an approach and articulates the various roles that must be carried out to successfully transform these conflicts.

    Beyond Intractability Essay

  • Obedience to Authority: An Experimental View

    "...[T]he most fundamental lesson of our study: ordinary people, simply doing their jobs, and without any particular hostility on their part, can become agents in a terrible destructive process. Moreover, even then the destructive effects of their work become patently clear, and they are asked to carry out actions incompatible with fundamental standards of morality, relatively few people have the resources needed to resist authority." -- from Website

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  • Oppression and Conflict: Introduction

    Oppression is at the root of many of the most serious, enduring conflicts in the world today. This very short essay introduces the concept of oppression.

    Beyond Intractability Essay

  • People under Threat 2009

    "Every year Minority Rights Group International publishes Peoples Under Threat, identifying those groups or peoples around the world most at risk of genocide, mass killing or other systematic violent repression. 2009 is the fourth year that MRG has compiled the list, which is based on current indicators from authoritative sources..." -- from Website

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  • Preventing Interpersonal Violence

    This essay examines what can be done to prevent violence at the interpersonal and small group level (as opposed to the international level). The prevention of family violence, gang violence, and violence in the schools are examples of topics considered in this essay.

    Beyond Intractability Essay

  • Preventing Mass Atrocities: An Agenda for Policymakers and Citizens

    It is not enough for governments and the world community to agree that genocide and mass atrocities must not happen. Policymakers must be convinced that preventing mass violence is both possible and in their own political interests.

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  • Public Diplomacy

    Public diplomacy provides a means of influencing foreign publics without the use of force. This brief article describes its history, discusses how it has been used by the U.S. in the "War on Terror," and gives a list of "best practices."

    Beyond Intractability Essay

  • Ripeness

    A conflict is said to be ripe once both parties realize they cannot win, and the conflict is costing them too much to continue. This tends to be a good time to open negotiations.

    Beyond Intractability Essay

  • Risk Assessment and Early Warning and Their Uses for Prevention: Three Mini Case Studies

    This article is included in the Genocide Prevention Advisory Network that discusses the countires that the author feels to be at risk of genocide. The article addresses the gaps concerning prevention and early detection of genocide, as well as describes the early warning risk assessment model. The author provides three case studies to illustrate her point.

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  • Rumor Control

    Rumors spread quickly in escalated conflicts. Here are strategies to slow or stop this process.

    Beyond Intractability Essay

  • State-Sponsored Mass Murder: The Onset and Severity of Genocide and Politicides

    The author argues that openings in the political opportunity structure, rather than the levels of concentration of power, best predict the onset of genocides or politicides and which states will engage in the most severe state-sponsored mass murder. These and other hypotheses are tested. Analysis of logit models reveals that civil war involvement is the most consistent predictor of the onset of genocides or politicides, and other political opportunity structure variables have some effects, especially when in combination with at least one of the other political opportunity structure variables. Analysis of negative binomial event-count models also reveals that political opportunity structure variables best account for the degree of severity of a given genocide or politicide. In sum, openings in the political opportunity structure are more important in understanding what affects the onset and degree of severity of genocides and politicides than other more static variables.

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  • Systematic Early Warning of Humanitarian Emergencies

    More than 60 communal minorities were victimized as a result of internal wars and state failures between 1980 and 1996. The potential for rebellion is said to be a joint function of group incentives, group capacity, and opportunities for collectivve action. Indicators of these concepts from the Minorities at Risk poject identify 73 groups at high risk of communal rebellion in the late 1990s. Genocide and politicide are attributed to background conditions, intervening conditions, and a short-term increase in accelerators. This article discusses the monitoring of these accelerators in potential crisis situations, using the example of the 1994 genocide in Rwanda.

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  • The Encyclopedia of Genocide

    "The Encyclopedia of Genocide is a rededication to human life. It is an encyclopedia of humankind's beginning struggle to control and prevent the mass slaughters of unarmed beings that, tragically, take place very often on our planet." -- from Website

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  • The Impossible Mandate? Military Preparedness, the Responsibility to Protect, and Modern Peace Operations

    The particular focus of Tori Holt and Toby Berkman is moving from the lofty rhetoric of civilian protection to the practical issues for a military role, such as developing doctrine and training for forces deployed in peace operations. They explain why R2P, for all its compelling logic, actually falls through the cracks of planning and doctrine for peacekeeping missions, and offer some concrete suggestions for preventing such lacunae in the international community's responses to conflict. They also provide a useful guide to the range of concepts associated with civilian protection, and important insight into how military culture and practice translate the concept into actionable guidance to troops in the field.

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  • The Limits of Humanitarian Intervention: Genocide in Rwanda

    Combining unprecedented analyses of the genocides progression and the logistical limitations of humanitarian military intervention, Kuperman reaches a startling conclusion: even if Western leaders had ordered an intervention as soon as they became aware of a nationwide genocide in Rwanda, the intervention forces would have arrived too late to save more than a quarter of the 500,000 Tutsi ultimately killed. Serving as a cautionary message about the limits of humanitarian intervention, the books concluding chapters address lessons for the future.

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  • The Power of Lists During Genocide

    "Scholars have identified list-making as one of the initial steps in genocide planning. People in power use lists to categorize people, track them and ultimately identify who should be killed, according to Gregory Stanton, the founder and president of the advocacy organization Genocide Watch. Today, it's what activists look out for in hopes of preventing genocide." -- from Website

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  • What Does 'Intent to Destroy' in Genocide Mean?

    Genocide is a crime with a double mental element, i.e. a general intent as to the underlying acts, and an ulterior intent with regard to the ultimate aim of the destruction of the group. The prevailing view in the case-law interprets the respective 'intent to destroy' requirement as a special or specific intent stressing its volitional or purpose-based tendency. While this view has been followed for a long time in legal doctrine without further ado, it has recently been challenged by knowledge- and structure-based approaches, which have not received sufficient attention.

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