Runaway Conflict, Civil Strife, and Large-Scale Violence

2. Intractable Conflict Threat and Opportunity

by Heidi Burgess

Sept. 29, 2025

Perhaps the biggest danger of hyper-polarization and the associated unbridled escalation is that it makes out-of-control (or runaway) conflicts, civil strife, and violence increasingly likely. As people get more fearful and more angry, the norms against violence weaken. When fundamental human needs, such as identity, security, and recognition are threatened, people fight back. And they often fight back violently, as they see that as their only or best chance for securing their needs.

This has been very evident in the many places around the world where civil strife and even civil war has broken out. But the United States is not immune. It is striking to look at the hyper-polarized hateful rhetoric that is dominating social media, and comparing that to the hateful rhetoric that preceded, for example, the Rwandan genocide. Hyper-polarization and hate lead to dehumanization of the other, and that dehumanization justifies all manners of violence. (The war between Israel and its neighbors is another good example of what can happen when dehumanization is allowed to flourish.)

Another driver of violence in the United States as well as elsewhere is when "normal" politics is framed as an "existential conflict." By this we mean the tendency of each side to say that a victory by the other side will mean the "end of democracy" or the end of "the United States as we know it." Leaders on both sides —Democrats and Republicans — have in the recent past, or are currently doing this. That gives license, indeed suggests, to certain unbalanced, alienated and violence-prone people that they can become a hero, perhaps "saving Democracy" or "saving the United States" by trying to kill a leader of the "evil" other side.

And even short of trying to kill leaders of the opposing side, all sorts of political and civic authorities report having received death threats or other threats of harm: judges, governors, legislators, local officials, including election workers, have all been threatened frequently across the U.S. This has caused many good civil servants to resign, deciding the risk and the threat is not worth it. That further weakens democracy and threatens further civil strife and violence, as such threats are correctly seen as effective in harming and dismantling "the other side."