Factual Disputes

3. Factors That Make Conflict Intractable

The BI essay on Factual Disputes was written in 2003, but is truer today than it was then. Factual disputes have grown exponentially in number and magnitude with the creation of the Internet and social media, where anyone can say anything, claim expertise, and it is very hard to distinguish what is true and what is false. And correct facts matter! The belief that the Democrats stole the 2020 election is deeply dividing U.S. society, and de-stabilizing U.S. democracy. The incorrect belief that a Muslim immigrant killed three girls in England in the summer of 2024 sparked massive right-wing riots in Britain. Distrust of science and government led the United States to have one of the highest death tolls from COVID of all the developed countries. 

Factual disputes have many causes.  Among the most worrisome and very prevalent is the intentional spreading of false information for economic, political, status, or other self-serving goals. But even short of that, policy issues today are so complex that it is impossible for lay people to understand the scientific, economic, political, and social ins and out of any policy dispute.  And often there is "scientific evidence" supporting alternative views, because (sometimes) the science itself is biased, or it is interpreted inaccurately, or the uncertainties are simply to high too be able to make an "expert" decision about what's true.

Nevertheless, factual disputes tend to be more easily dealt with than other conflict overlay factors, such as escalation, and are also usually more easily controlled than the value and identity disputes that are at the core of many intractable conflicts.

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