Newsletter #409 — December 14, 2025

by Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

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Highlighted Links

A few suggestions about links that we think are especially interesting.

• Violence
  Has an English Civil War Already Begun? — For those who have trouble imagining how our hyper-polarized politics could possibly deteriorate into civil war, a detailed, must-read description of how such a war is already starting to unfold in Great Britain.
• Culture and Religion
  The Multiculturalism Paradox — Thought-provoking criticism of multicultural programs which highlights ways in which they may be undermining, rather than advancing, their core goal -- building a peaceful multicultural society.
• Disinformation
  The Manufactured Rise of Nick Fuentes — As we worry about the dark side of America that was exposed by the stunning rise of Nick Fuentes, news that that his rise seems to have been engineered by mysterious social media propagandists.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  The Neocons Were Right — A retrospective look at neoconservatism in the era of Daniel Patrick Moynihan -- a philosophy that could do much to help us escape our current difficulties.
• Israel / Hamas War
  The ’I don’t support Israel’ conversation needs to stop. — An article that eloquently explains why the controversy over Gaza is not just about Israelis and Palestinians -- it's about the choices that we are making about the world in which we are all going to live.
• Israel / Hamas War
  Colonialism and the framing of Israel — An essay exploring how language affects the way in which we think about international conflict and how language developed for different problems and different eras can distort our ability to think clearly about current problems.
• US Politics
  The Indiana Vote Is an Inflection Point — An eye-opening account of the taboo-breaking strong-arm tactics used by the Trump administration to advance its agenda and the courageous actions of Indiana Republicans in defying that pressure.

Reader Suggested Links

Highlighting links suggested by our readers. Please send us links to things that you find useful.

• Superpower Conflict
  Niall Ferguson: The Truth About Trump’s National Security Strategy — An especially perceptive analysis of the complex story behind and the implications of the United States's new National Security Strategy.
• Superpower Conflict
  This Is the 21st-Century Arms Race. Can America Keep Up? — Rapid changes in military technology plus the collapse of taboos against large-scale aggression mean that the US now has to prepare for (and hopefully deter) a wide range of new military threats.
• Artificial Intelligence
  OpenAI nonprofit jam — Hopeful news that one of the brainstorming strategies used by technology developers is being applied to social problems.
• Israel / Hamas War
  A Hostages Hope — A heart-wrenching account of the imprisonment of one of the Israeli hostage -- an account that reveals the unfathomable barbarity of their captors.
• The Hyper-Polarization Threat
  The Unravelling of a Nation — For those still trying to understand the dramatic way in which European societies have been changing, one perspective on how Great Britain has been transformed.
• Psychological Complexity
  The New Mind Virus Quickly Overtaking Our Societies — As we try to understand the world that, too often, seems to have gone mad, an article highlighting an often unrecognized part of the problem -- the combination of ignorance and arrogance.
• Superpower Conflict
  Trump Is Not Attacking Europe. He’s Attacking Something Else. — An article that highlights some of the serious issues raised by the new US National Security Strategy -- issues that are often missed in the highly politicized discussion of this document.

Colleague Activities

Highlighting things that our conflict and peacebuilding colleagues are doing that contribute to efforts to address the hyper-polarization problem.

• Developing a Unifying Vision
  America’s Declaration of Interdependence — Something remarkable is happening in the democracy renewal movement—a profound convergence around a single, transformative principle: interdependence. Dr. Paul Zeitz explains what this means.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Philanthropy in 2030: Leaders Predict the Future — Five philanthropic leaders predict how (and if) philanthropy can help to revitalize democracy in the U.S.
• Peacebuilding
  Using AI for Conflict Resolution Around the Globe — Jonathan Stray's reflections after attending the 12th Building Peace conference of what he calls "conflict nerds" on how AI can be used to build peace around the world.
• Artificial Intelligence
  When AI Starts Shaping What We Believe — The problem isn’t the algorithms anymore — it’s something deeper. A scary new threat from David Beckenmeyer interviewing Petter Tornberg.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  The Real Reason Politicians Can’t Fix the Affordability Crisis — The Builders look at how the affordability crisis got this bad and why the usual partisan talking points keep us stuck.
• Civil Society
  The Case for Confidence in America — A hopeful conversation with Adam Mizel — and a simple way you can help unite America on December 13th.
• Saving Democracy
  From Fragments to Force: A Call to Unite the Pro-Democracy Movement — Our democracy reform efforts are powerful—but fragmented. What we need is a unifying framework—not a top-down agenda, but a shared banner, a common story, and coordination across the pro-democracy space.
• Civic Education
  Program for Public Consultation — A program at the University of Maryland's School of Public Policy, that was established to develop the methods and theory of public consultation and to conduct public consultation surveys at all levels of government.
• Saving Democracy
  Voice of the People — A nonpartisan organization working to improve our democracy by giving the people a greater voice in policymaking.
• Superpower Conflict
  The Empire Has No Clothes: America’s Democratic Sermons and the Authoritarian Boomerang — In 2025, a startling spectacle has emerged: the nation that proclaimed itself democracy's global arbiter now displays the very symptoms of authoritarianism it once denounced.
• Education
  Is Trump’s higher education compact a bad deal but a good opportunity? — A podcast from the Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation, arguing that universities should not sign Trump's compact, but rather should unite to negotiate their own package of needed reforms.
• Psychological Complexity
  Affective Polarization and the Perception Gap Lesson — This post draws on Diana Owen's research that explains the Perception Gap and affective polarization and explores how civic education can address political misperceptions.
• Civil Society
  Normsy.ai: Strengthening Online Civic Norms at Scale — Normsy harnesses groundbreaking social science and AI insights to provide timely, relevant, and effective ways for users to speak up on behalf of bridging and civic norms. This white paper explains how.
• Peacebuilding
  The New Fragility: Peacebuilding Meets Digital Democracy — Governments and CSOs are adopting digital tools to support public participation. These technologies hold real promise, but their success depends on the same principles that have guided peacebuilding efforts for decades.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  Building Effective Democratic Coalitions — This guide offers a strategic framework for understanding the different types of coalitions needed to strengthen democracy and how to communicate effectively with diverse audiences.
• Education
  The Extraordinary Transformation of a City and Its Schools — A two-part podcast series about community, education, and the power of turning outward co-produced by Courageous Conversations About Our Schools and The Harwood Institute
• Civil Society
  Civil Society Rights and Resiliency Resources — The Charity and Security Network (C&SN) published a new resource page for nonprofits to prepare for and respond to attacks on civil society.

News and Opinion

From around the web, more insight into the nature of our conflict problems, limits of business-as-usual thinking, and things people are doing to try to make things better. (Formerly, Beyond Intractability in Context.)

• Developing a Unifying Vision
  The Future of the Left in the 21st Century — A follow-up on Ruy Teixeira's efforts to get the left to fundamentally rethink where it wants to go and how it wants to get there.
• US Politics
  Whose Fault is Trump? — An article that asks hard questions about the factors that led to Trump's reelection -- an article that doesn't let us just blame it all on somebody else.
• Peacebuilding
  White House renames building the ‘Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace’ — Does this suggest that Donald Trump recognizes the importance of building peace? It would be nicer if he was more willing to learn from the successes and failures of those who have been struggling with this problem for decades.
• Interstate War
  Trump Has Put the Military in an Impossible Situation — An in-depth analysis of the complex cluster surrounding the military's obligation to disobey illegal orders (and the difficulties associated with asking soldiers in combat to determine when orders are illegal).
• Interstate War
  The Laws of War Are Not Woke — An explanation of the important difference between the "laws of war" and "rules of engagement."
• Media Reform
  I Might Be the Only American on X — Reflections on the things that we've learned from one of the good things that X has done in the name of transparency -- revealing the actual locations of people posting on its platform.
• Progressive Left
  The Battle Over K–12 Ethnic Studies — Amid today's highly politicized arguments about educational policy, an article that provides specifics about the kinds of programs that have inspired such animosity.
• Saving Democracy
  America’s Slide Toward Simulated Democracy — A new perspective on democracy's troubles -- we've replaced the rigors of democratic governance with the cultivation of the illusion that that's what we are doing.
• Climate / Environment / Health
  Revenge of the Climate Realists — A story about the rising prominence of climate experts that were once demonized for asking reasonable, hard, and critically important questions.
• Superpower Conflict
  Europe is under siege — An article that looks at the many serious challenges that Europe is now facing (including the stunning way in which President Trump is reshaping US European relations).
• Saving Democracy
  They Were Supposed to Save Europe. Instead, They’re Condemning It to Horrors. — As the power of right-leading populist movements increases across much of Europe, thoughts on why the establishment's efforts to curtail such movements has failed.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  18,000 Reasons It’s So Hard to Build a Chip Factory in America — An in-depth and eye-opening account of what it takes to build a big new factory in the United States (and reduce our dependence on precarious global supply chains).
• Rule of Law
  Waging War Lawfully Is Crucial to Defending Civilization — A reminder that, given the United States' vast military capabilities, it is critically important that they use those capabilities in ways that scrupulously follow the letter and spirit of the law.
• Culture and Religion
  We need to be honest: Some cultures are better than others. — An important reminder that culture matters and that different belief systems produce different societies with different outcomes for their citizens.
• Progressive Left
  No, ‘Anticipating Violence’ Is Not Violence — A persuasive critique of the ways in which many progressives have weaponized and redefined the word "violence" in ways that protect them from the slightest hint of criticism.
• Israel / Hamas War
  The Gaza Militias That Can Defeat Hamas — For those who see Hamas' defeat as the key to building a better future for Gaza and the Palestinians, news that Palestinians themselves may be in a position to challenge Hamas' barbarity.
• Left / Right Conflict
  Can Germany stop extremism by banning a far-right party? Some want to try. — An article about efforts to limit the influence of right-leaning populist parties by outlawing them. Will it provoke a backlash as activists feel compelled to resort to extralegal and potentially violent tactics?
• Civic Education
  These universities are reviving higher education’s civic seriousness — A review (with links) to some of the major new university programs that are trying to teach the skills needed to reinvigorate our troubled democracy.

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About the MBI Newsletters

Two or three times a week, Guy and Heidi Burgess, the BI Directors, share some of our thoughts on political hyper-polarization and related topics. We also share essays from our colleagues and other contributors, and every week or so, we devote one newsletter to annotated links to outside readings that we found particularly useful relating to U.S. hyper-polarization, threats to peace (and actual violence) in other countries, and related topics of interest. Each Newsletter is posted on BI, and sent out by email through Substack to subscribers. You can sign up to receive your copy here and find the latest newsletter here or on our BI Newsletter page, which also provides access to all the past newsletters, going back to 2017.

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