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Introduction:
Does the international justice system
inadvertently lengthen the time that dictators stay in power by making them
afraid to step down? Where does the balance lie between providing incentives for
dictators to step down and enforcing punishment mechanisms for leaders who
have behaved unjustly? Terrence Lyons, professor of Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University, discusses these issues.
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This rough transcript provides a text alternative to audio. We apologize for occasional errors and unintelligible sections (which are marked with ???).
Carrots and Sticks
Terrence Lyons
Professor of Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University
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Q: This image of a cycle in mind is growing where I have heard people say
there are no old ex-leaders in Africa. Either they stay in office until they get
killed, or they leave to get assassinated. There is a problem in which inhibits
the transfer of power, because as soon as they do, then they are getting killed
or someone is going to take them down with them. Then I think about the
international court of justice and things like that and what incentive do I have
as a leader maybe even if I were nominally democratically elected. What
incentive do I have to turn over power if I am going to go to the ICJ or get
knocked off somewhere or something like that? How do you deal with punishing
people who have done wrong versus pushing them in a sense to stay in office
longer than necessary?
A: Right, no it is another of the conundrums, or the paradoxes that
you don't want to set the bar in such a way that your choices are either steal the
election or have you go to jail. If you can give a powerful person that choice,
you will have a lot of stolen elections or a lot of elections that are
overturned by military coup, or a number of procedures.
Fortunately, in Africa in the last decade you are beginning to get examples of retired African leaders, Nelson Mandela is
the most prominent among them. Jerry Rollins in Ghana is an ex-president who is
around to tell the tale, Benin in West Africa. Kerekou, the leader was both thrown out
of office and four or actually it was eight years later, was brought back in and
elected again, sort of an astonishing way. But there are people who say for
Jerry Rollins, the president in Ghana, that they want him to account for his
deeds, especially in the early days, when he came to power through military
coup. He then moved to elections with some trials and his political opponents
were executed. That is a very difficult trade off. Eventually people say that
one of the reasons why George Washington is such a revered figure is not so much
how he governed, but that he stepped down after two terms.
Q: No one remembers what he did!
A: Right. One of the most important things that he did - looking at it
two-hundred some odd years later - was not run again and
to say that there is life after politics. In Africa and other parts of the
developing world, so much power gets concentrated at the head of state level.
You don't have the government positions that you gain wealth in or power and
privilege. It becomes an all or nothing game. You either win the elections or
you are a nobody.
Where in the US if you lose an election you can go off and run
your business or become a TV celebrity or do a talk show. Al Gore, Bill Clinton,
Jimmy Carter, Gerry Ford; these are all people of some wealth and prestige and
power in society, even though they are no longer in formal political office.
That is something that takes a long time to develop. I could probably name the
handful of examples in Africa where that has happened. But it has happened.
Daniel arap Moi in Kenya stepped down. I never thought that would happen, yet it did.
He accepted that life after power was better than holding onto power at all
costs.
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