Newsletter #463 — June 14, 2026

by Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

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Highlighted Links

A few suggestions about links that we think are especially interesting.

• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Anatomy of a debacle — A must-read article explaining the magnitude of the United States and Israel's defeat in the recent war with Iran. This is an event that will cast a very long shadow and will require dramatic changes in the way we think about war and peace.
• Media Reform
  Why You Should Be a Techno-Skeptic — Sensible advice about how we should, especially with respect to the next generation, think about each next new thing that emerges from the world of high-tech. 
• Nihilists
  The Destructivists — A must-read story that helps us better understand how the left and the right's incessant criticism of the establishment is leading us toward a kind of destructive nihilism that is threatening society's very foundations.
• Interstate War
  America Can’t Build for War Anymore — A more in-depth examination of one of the many newly discovered limits on US power -- its inability to affordably produce the munitions needed to defend itself and its allies in today's protracted armed conflicts.
• Interstate War
  The World’s Great Powers Are Learning They Have Limits — More insight into the era's biggest revelations --the fact that the world's great powers are nowhere near as great or powerful as they would like to think.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Why Iran Continues to Choose War Over Peace — An important article explains how cultural differences that have made the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States so intractable (and peacemaking efforts so futile).
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Iran is Trump's Katrina — Another must-read article that explains the catastrophic consequences of Operation Epic Fury and the enormous changes that will be required in the war's aftermath.

Reader Suggested Links

Highlighting links suggested by our readers. Please send us links to things that you find useful.

• Social / Economic Complexity
  The Ordinary Miracle of Existing — As we struggle through our little (and not so little) frustrations, grievances, and conflicts, an argument for stepping back and remembering the miracles that make us and our world possible.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  What the Cult of Efficiency Costs Us — Important reflections on the downside of an economic system that ruthlessly channels resources to the most efficient producer of any good or service.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Haviv Rettig Gur: When Will the War with Iran End? — An article written before the recent peace agreement that offers important insights into the long-term nature of the Israeli Iranian conflict.
• Psychological Complexity
  The Cult of Delayed Gratification Is a Lie — An updated look at the famous marshmallow test which sought to predict a child's future by his or her willingness to delay the gratification that comes from eating piece of candy.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  Independent Cascadia? Greater Idaho? Disunited States Look Toward Divorce — One of the keys to making democracy work is a structure that allows communities to manage their own affairs wherever possible. This article reviews efforts to redraw political boundaries in ways that would apply this principle.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Israel’s greatest threat isn’t Hamas, Hezbollah or Iran — An important reminder that the decisive battle in the wars against Israel is being fought in the court world opinion (a court that will also do much to decide determine whether Israel's neighbors can escape the curse of Islamic extremism).
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  The Real Reason We Can't Talk to Each Other — A compelling argument that the key to constructive communication (and building a society that actually works) lies in treating our fellow citizens as if their problems really matter.

Colleague Activities

Highlighting things that our conflict and peacebuilding colleagues are doing that contribute to efforts to address the hyper-polarization problem.

• Developing a Unifying Vision
  Chapter 2: A Theory of Gifts — Potentialism argues that everyone has a gift, and has both the right and responsibility to develop and share that gift. But what is a "gift" in this sense?
• Peacebuilding
  The Real Reason the World Cup Matters — The game's greatest contribution isn't measured on a scoreboard. It's found in the connections it creates, the common ground it reveals, and the common good that follows.
• Saving Democracy
  Barack Obama: ‘You wonder why Congress doesn’t work?’ — It’s easy to blame the people in Washington and a lot harder to look at the incentives that shape how they get there.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  Universal Governance Design — A more upbeat article from somebody who has been thinking about what it would take to build a system of government that really could earn and enjoy the public's support.
• Peacebuilding
  2026 Global Peace Index — The 2026 Global Peace index documents a year of record-breaking global violent conflict and the deterioration of global peacefulness for the 12th consecutive year.
• Peacebuilding
  The Aid Report: Peacebuilding and Stabilization After U.S. Aid Cuts — An article documenting the real-world impacts of U.S. foreign aid cuts.
• Saving Democracy
  When the State Loses Moral Legitimacy — When governments abandon objective facts, they destroy the foundation of a free society — and the consent of the governed.
• Peacebuilding
  Book Talk with Adam Kahane: Collaborating with the Enemy — Liz Hume talks with Adam Kahane, discussing key lessons from the second edition of his book, "Collaborating with the Enemy: How to Work with People You Don’t Agree with or Like or Trust."
• Nihilists
  The Psychology of Nothing – Understanding the Pathway to Nihilistic Extremism: Adolescence, Trauma, and a Public Health Model for Prevention — A report arguing that understanding pathways to violence requires a broader framework that draws from developmental psychology, trauma research, and public health approaches, rather than focusing solely on ideological analysis.
• Violence
  The End of Violence: Eliminating the World’s Most Dangerous Epidemic — A book talk with Gray Slutkin on his new book documenting how violence spreads in our minds, and how to stop it.
• Peacebuilding
  The Strategic Blind Spot: How Neglecting Peacebuilding Undermines Global Security — A Reflection Paper, commissioned by the Civil Society Platform for Peacebuilding and Statebuilding (CSPPS) that looks, not only at the problem, but also possible responses to it that would reinvigorate peacebuilding work.
• Civil Society
  The U.S. Civil Society Working Group on Women, Peace, and Security — USCSWG is a non-partisan network of 50+ civil society organizations with expertise on the impacts of conflict on women and their participation in peacebuilding.
• Peacebuilding
  Unlocking the Peace Premium — An evidence-based review of the potentials and pitfalls of private sector finance for conflict transformation.
• Violence
  Key Political Violence and Resilience Trends From 2025 — This report identifies 5 key political violence trends that emerged in the United States in 2025, and discusses three effective resilience and response strategies that can inform mitigation efforts in the coming months.
• Saving Democracy
  Why the Carter Center is Monitoring U.S. Elections — Jason Carter of the Carter center explains what can be done to instill more trust in the voting process in advance of the 2026 U.S. midterms.
• Peacebuilding
  Hope in Action: Stories from the Frontlines — A webinar where SFCG staff shared examples of communities choosing dialogue over division, preventing violence before it escalated, and rebuilding trust in places where hope can feel hardest to hold onto.
• Peacebuilding
  Disrupting Peace: What Leads People to (and Away From) Violent White Supremacy? with Peter Simi and Sara Winegar Budge — A podcast discussing what makes individuals vulnerable to white supremacist beliefs, what it means when extremism becomes mainstream, the surprising permeability of these groups, and how to talk to people in your life who express racist ideology.
• Peacebuilding
  “We Canceled Silence:” How Local Peace Committees Rebuild Trust in Syria — An article on a women-led peacebuilding organization in Syria that brings together women, youth, returnees, and community leaders for dialogue, connection, and collective action in communities deeply affected by war and displacement.
• Bridge Building
  Ten Years In — Terry Kyllo reflects on his ten years working to find the path to cross-group, cross-difference understanding.
• Peacebuilding
  2026 United States Counterterrorism Strategy Escalates Crackdown on Civil Society — A Charity & Security Network (C&SN) analysis of the recently released 2026 U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy and its implications for nonprofit organizations.
• Rule of Law
  How the Carter Center Defends the Rule of Law — A short video exploring how the rule of law helps protect rights, strengthen democracy, and build more just societies by equipping citizens to access justice, safeguard freedom of speech, and maintain government accountability to its constituents.

News and Opinion

From around the web, more insight into the nature of our conflict problems, limits of business-as-usual thinking, and things people are doing to try to make things better. (Formerly, Beyond Intractability in Context.)

• Saving Democracy
  The West’s Greatest Innovation—An Independent Judiciary — A chance to appreciate (and a reason to work to help preserve) one of the most essential components of democracy -- and independent judiciary focused on making our rule-of-law based system actually work.
• Interstate War
  The Next Domain of Warfare Lies Underground — A perceptive article that sheds further light on just how dramatically the nature of war is being transformed by drones and related technologies. Efforts to prevent war simply have to figure out how to adapt to this new reality.
• Family / Gender / LBGTQ+
  The TQ+ Threat To LGB Rights — One perspective on the important,but seldom recognized, conflicts that exist within the broader gender rights movement.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  The Art of the Non-Deal — From France's Fukuyama, another perspective on the United States capitulation in its war with Iran.
• Non-Violence
  Protests Are Not Emotional Support Groups — A thoughtful critique of the "No Kings" protests with suggestions about what it's really going to take to alter our destructive political trajectory.
• Constructively Addressing Complex Issues
  The neglected importance of boring methodological disputes — A welcome and much needed reminder that we can only get closer to the truth if we pay attention too a whole series of complex methodological disputes. Otherwise we're just using science to rationalize our personal preferences.
• Race / Anti-Racism
  Act Your Race — From Free Black Thought, a succinct, well-written critique of anti-racist ideology -- a critique that argues that it is making our race-based problems worse, not better.
• Culture and Religion
  Civilizations That Forget Themselves Invite Others In — As we continue to criticize our society and our civilization's many failings, an argument that we also ought to remember and defend its many good points -- good points that include the right to to be so critical.
• Media Reform
  A “Failure of Journalism” in Canada — A story about a particularly egregious case in which the media uncritically promoted a particularly divisive story that ultimately turned out to be untrue.
• Peacebuilding
  Can US Engagement Rescue the United Nations From Irrelevance? — A sharp critique of the many ways in which the United Nations has failed to live up to its lofty ideals, with suggestions on how the United States might be able to help promote much needed changes.
• Climate / Environment / Health
  Can America Build Nuclear Again? Part 1 — A fresh look at nuclear power -- a power source that could play a critical role in promoting energy security and combating climate change.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  A Reading List for the End of Civilization — If you want a list of future opportunities, this is a compilation of information about all of the things that are going wrong. The opportunity is in figuring out how to fix those things.
• Artificial Intelligence
  What If Artificial Intelligence Progress Explodes? — Contemplations about what might happen when the power of artificial intelligence starts feeding back on itself in a kind of positive feedback system.
• Interstate War
  Ukraine Is Not Losing. Russia Is Not Winning. — An update on the hurting, high-tech stalemate that now exists on the Ukrainian/Russian front.
• US Politics
  Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology — An update on Pew's long-standing effort to illuminate the fact that the U.S. political divide is far more complex than the simple red/blue dichotomy suggests.
• Saving Democracy
  Is California’s Election ‘Rigged’? — A more in-depth look at the way in which California actually votes (with insights into why those on the conservative side of the political spectrum have real questions about the system's fairness.)
• Race / Anti-Racism
  The White Identitarians Are Having a Moment — An exploration of the ways in which identity politics plays out on the right-leaning side of the political divide.
• Left / Right Conflict
  Anti-Woke, or Just Wounded? A Typology of Two Types of Anti-Woke Intellectuals — An article illuminating a seldom-recognized distinction between two distinct reasons for challenging progressive policies.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Rigor or Ruin: Sociology’s Reckoning Has Arrived — As a sociologist who has long been frustrated with the politicalization of my chosen profession, I find this call for rigorously analyzing social problems and possible solutions to be a much needed step forward.
• Saving Democracy
  Politics Cannot be Simulated — An article highlighting the human component of democratic processes -- democracy isn't just an algorithm for making wise, equitable, and technically sound decisions.

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About the MBI Newsletters

Two or three times a week, Guy and Heidi Burgess, the BI Directors, share some of our thoughts on political hyper-polarization and related topics. We also share essays from our colleagues and other contributors, and every week or so, we devote one newsletter to annotated links to outside readings that we found particularly useful relating to U.S. hyper-polarization, threats to peace (and actual violence) in other countries, and related topics of interest. Each Newsletter is posted on BI, and sent out by email through Substack to subscribers. You can sign up to receive your copy here and find the latest newsletter here or on our BI Newsletter page, which also provides access to all the past newsletters, going back to 2017.

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