Newsletter #418 — January 25, 2026

by Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

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Highlighted Links

A few suggestions about links that we think are especially interesting.

• Israel / Hamas War
  How Iran Crushed a Citizen Uprising With Lethal Force — From the New York Times, a hard-to-watch account of the staggering scale of Iran's reign of terror (the horror that is, apparently, continuing). Remember these are also the people behind October 7.
• Non-Violence
  Resistance is necessary, but it's not enough — Serious thinking about what a comprehensive and effective effort to push back against the extremes of the Trump Administration would actually need to look like.
• Culture and Religion
  Democrats and the Siren Call of Culture Denialism — As Democrats struggle to mount an effective opposition to the President, worrying news that they have yet to come to terms with the political unpopularity of so many of their "culture war" policies.
• Hate Mongering
  The Power of Grievance — From Foreign Affairs, a historical analysis of the relationship between authoritarian power grabs and the cultivation of group grievances and outgroup hatreds.
• Race / Anti-Racism
  Democrats’ Racial Politics Do More Harm Than Good — A thought-provoking analysis of the role that race, race-based hostility, and racial politics play in our destructive, hyper-polarized politics.
• Communication Complexity
  America Isn’t Divided on ICE – It’s Divided on REALITY. — An explanation of what happens when you have people who share the same place believing completely different things about the nature of that place.
• Political Moderates
  Why Independent Voters Are Not Necessarily Moderate — The surprising analysis of the political views of independents and moderates -- they are maybe not so moderate after all.
• Saving Democracy
  Why the Supreme Court Tariff Case Is Such a Big Deal — An update on what may be the most consequential Supreme Court case of Trump's second Presidency and his astonishing claims of unchecked power.

Reader Suggested Links

Highlighting links suggested by our readers. Please send us links to things that you find useful.

• Violence
  In Minneapolis, I Glimpsed a Civil War — An in-depth account of the ongoing crisis in Minneapolis which confirms our fear that we are dangerously close to the kind of large-scale civil unrest that the US has not seen since the 1960s and early 70s.
• Theories of Change
  Why Some Protest Movements Alienate the People They Aim to Persuade — To be successful, protest movements need to persuade more people to support the protester's cause. This article explains why so many movements fail to achieve this goal.
• US Politics
  Davos and Dementia — A worrying analysis, based upon Trump's Davos' speech (and other sources), of the President's mental fitness and his ability to exercise the responsibilities of his office.
• US Politics
  An Unhinged President on the Magic Mountain — More thoughtful reflections on Davos' recent World Economic Forum and the far-reaching changes that it portends for the world.
• Left / Right Conflict
  An Old Theory Helps Explain What Happened to Renee Good — An illuminating analysis of the complex and very frustrating legal issues surrounding the death of Renee Good in Minneapolis.
• Disinformation
  Soviet propaganda still dominates the West. — An analysis of the surprising relationship between Soviet-era propaganda efforts to divide the West and the movement to free Palestine.
• Israel / Hamas War
  Iran's Weekend of Blood — An early report on the staggering scale and brutality of Iran's crackdown on protesters -- a report that somehow escaped Iran's almost total blackout on internal and external communication.

Colleague Activities

Highlighting things that our conflict and peacebuilding colleagues are doing that contribute to efforts to address the hyper-polarization problem.

• Immigration
  What Would Victory in Minneapolis Look Like? — To our delight, Jonathan Stray applies the concept of the Power Strategy Mix (together with into-the-sea framing) to the standoff in Minneapolis.
• Race / Anti-Racism
  The unbearable habit of denouncing unbearable whiteness — An important story about the many things that the left's racial politics does to motivate Trump supporters and the larger effort to dismantle anything associated with DEI.
• Communication Complexity
  Misinformation, Social Media, and Deepfakes (with Sacha Altay) — A deep dive into controversies surrounding fake news, "misinformation", propaganda, advertising, polarization, social media, and generative AI.
• US Politics
  Trump's Voters Are Not a Cult — Daniel Stid reflects on the findings of More In Common's new report on Trump voters and MAGA, concluding it is a diversified coalition, not a homogeneous "cult."
• US Politics
  National Security Leaders for America: Warns Against Threatened Use of Insurrection Act in Minnesota — Deploying or posturing troops against domestic protests risks constitutional rights and civil-military trust.
• US Politics
  Presidential Power to Deploy Military Inside the U.S. — A short "explainer" from Mormon Women for Ethical Government, focused on the Insurrection Act and the Posse Comitatus Act.
• Peacebuilding
  Venezuela: Where's human rights in the narrative? — Separating fact from fiction with foreign policy expert Enrique Roig, with an eye toward the Venezuelan people.
• Non-Violence
  The Quiet Strength of Nonviolence: What Dr. King Taught About Healing Conflict — In this podcast, Danielle Reiff shares how King’s commitment to nonviolence can transform how we listen, engage, and live with one another -- especially in this time of division and digital noise.
• Non-Violence
  The Future of Nonviolent Resistance — Over the past fifty years, nonviolent civil resistance has overtaken armed struggle as the most common form of mobilization used by revolutionary movements. Yet it often has been less effective.
• Non-Violence
  Maria Stephan talks with Stephen Colbert about Nonviolence and ICE. — Maria J. Stephan, co-leader and the chief organizer with the Horizons Project, was on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert talking about using nonviolence in response to ICE.
• Effective Problem-Solving
  The Missing Tool for Tackling Tough Problems: Value-Based Analysis — Value-Based Analysis is a framework that helps one evaluate issues, not just by cherry-picking facts that support what you already believe, but by identifying the principles you care about most and using those as a guide.
• Psychological Complexity
  Happiness in the Hard Seasons — Happiness is easy to understand when life is smooth. But the real test -- and often the real opportunity -- comes during the hard seasons: illness, loss, stress, conflict, disappointment, or uncertainty.
• De-Escalation Strategies
  Depolarization Dōjō — An AI app that allows you to practice constructive political dialogue with AI personas representing diverse viewpoints. Receive real-time coaching to improve your bridge-building skills.
• Non-Violence
  The King Center’s Definition of Nonviolence — This article defines Martin Luther King's definition of nonviolence, lists the six steps of nonviolent social change, and describes the "beloved community" that King thought could result from the use of nonviolent action.
• US Politics
  Beyond MAGA: A Profile of the Trump Coalition — While there is a strong core of ardent Trump supporters whose identity is wrapped up in the MAGA movement, they represent a minority: only 38 percent of Trump voters say that being MAGA is important to them.
• Saving Democracy
  Yogendra Yadav Lecture on Threats to Democracy — Indian scholar and activist Yadav argues that democracy today is not killed by tanks or censorship, but by quietly changing the rules of the game.
• Immigration
  In a moment of rising conflict over immigration, Braver Angels calls for dignity, accountability, and civic repair — A letter sent to Braver Angels members by founder Bill Doherty, calling for resistance, replacement, and repair. Braver Angels, as an organization, he asserts, must focus on repair, leaving resistance to others.
• US Politics
  The Dangers of a Transactional Worldview — After Trump announced a ‘historic’ peace deal between Rwanda and the DRC, it broke down within hours. This is the predictable consequence of a strategy that treats peace not as a sustained political process, but as a commodity to be flipped for profit.
• De-Escalation Strategies
  Why I dwell on random acts of meanness in the face of authoritarian brutality — Erica Etelson explains why she thinks taunting and demeaning random ICE agents is doing much more harm than good.

News and Opinion

From around the web, more insight into the nature of our conflict problems, limits of business-as-usual thinking, and things people are doing to try to make things better. (Formerly, Beyond Intractability in Context.)

• Superpower Conflict
  Niall Ferguson: How Trump Won Davos — Another analysis of Davos that makes a controversial, thought-provoking, and, perhaps, persuasive argument that Trump is much cleverer than his detractors think.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Zero-sum economics keeps failing — A timely reminder that economics doesn't just focus on distributing the "national product" -- it focuses on the invisible hand and its ability to create positive-sum opportunities that give us more to distribute.
• US Politics
  Warning Lights for Team Blue — As Democrats anticipate a big election victory next November, an important article urging them not to be complacent (and to not do things that would limit their widespread unpopularity).
• Peacebuilding
  Trump’s Billion-Dollar Board of Peace — The report on President Trump's audacious efforts to build a major new "peacebuilding" organization focused on Gaza and the rest of the world -- something that in normal times would thrill peacebuilders.
• Saving Democracy
  Federal agencies drown Americans with unreleased regulatory ‘guidance’ — A story about efforts to illuminate and curtail a major, but largely unrecognized, way in which the US Executive Branch imposes its will on the larger society.
• Authoritarianism
  Trump’s Letter to Norway Should Be the Last Straw — From Anne Applebaum, one of the most informed voices on the danger posed by authoritarianism, an analysis of the implications of Trump's infamous Norway letter.
• Education
  Why Professors Fear the Future — Constructive criticism highlighting the many ways in which university faculty fail to "walk the talk" with respect to social justice issues.
• Climate / Environment / Health
  The Great Climate Reset — The climate movement is now suffering through a historic setback attributable to its failure to anticipate and respond to likely sources of opposition. This article thinks about a more positive way forward.
• Media Reform
  Local Newspapers Are Closing. Local News Is Surviving. — A hopeful story about ways in which communities are finding ways to maintain civic communication despite the catastrophic decline of local newspapers.
• Corruption
  One year ago, Donald Trump took an oath to serve the American people. Instead, he has focused on using the presidency to enrich himself. — The most comprehensive analysis that we've seen of the staggering levels of corruption associated with Trump's second Presidency.
• Left / Right Conflict
  No White Men Need Apply — A surprising story about the way in which the Trump Administration continues to operate programs that distribute federal grants to anyone but white men.
• Progressive Left
  American Studies Can’t Stand Its Subject — One of the big problems with the "critical theory" that underlies so much scholarly work is that it focuses on society's weaknesses without ever really contemplating its counterbalancing strengths.
• Immigration
  "Europe is becoming Unrecognisable," say Team Trump. They have a point. — Amid the backlash against Trump speech in Davos, an article that offers a countervailing perspective -- one that helps us understand the growing backlash against Europe's large-scale influx of immigrants.
• Progressive Left
  The Democratic Socialists of America Are Rejecting Democracy — As the Democratic Socialist movement in the United States gathers increasing support, an article about how that movement views democracy.
• Superpower Conflict
  This is how the world ends: not with a whimper, but with a bang — From Andrew Fox, an especially perceptive analyst of the military aspects of conflict, an explanation of why he believes that the greatest period of peace in history has now been shattered.
• Israel / Hamas War
  The New Gaza™ (A Virtual Paradise Lacking Only the 72 Virgins) — A report on Trump's high-rise, beach resort vision for Gaza and thoughts about how that might mesh with the area's region, history, and culture.
• Violence
  The ‘Unsustainable’ Clash Between Local Police and ICE — As hyper-polarized societies deteriorate toward civil war, one of the most dangerous steps occurs when police and military units come into direct conflict with one another -- with competing chains of command.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  What happens if the world pulls its money out of America? — A sober, well-informed, and thoughtful assessment of the big mega worry surrounding the United States' turbulent politics and uncertain economic policies.
• Climate / Environment / Health
  Relax, Microplastics Aren’t Killing You — The good news: one of the most worrying studies about the relationship between plastics and human health turns out to be false. The bad news is that the problem of plastic pollution is still quite serious.
• Superpower Conflict
  Divorce, Canadian Style — An analysis of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's speech in Davos -- a speech that is starting to set the tone for the way in which the world's democracies will respond to Trump's aggressive policies.
• Family / Gender / LBGTQ+
  The gaping hole in the transgender sports case — The report on the recent Supreme Court that highlights the difficulties associated with proving discrimination against women when you can't define women.

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About the MBI Newsletters

Two or three times a week, Guy and Heidi Burgess, the BI Directors, share some of our thoughts on political hyper-polarization and related topics. We also share essays from our colleagues and other contributors, and every week or so, we devote one newsletter to annotated links to outside readings that we found particularly useful relating to U.S. hyper-polarization, threats to peace (and actual violence) in other countries, and related topics of interest. Each Newsletter is posted on BI, and sent out by email through Substack to subscribers. You can sign up to receive your copy here and find the latest newsletter here or on our BI Newsletter page, which also provides access to all the past newsletters, going back to 2017.

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