Newsletter #499 — October 19, 2026

by Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess

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Highlighted Links

A few suggestions about links that we think are especially interesting.

• Interstate War
  Iran destroys a fundamental U.S. military assumption — The United States' superpower status and the Pax Americana that it helped bring about was ultimately dependent on a far flung network of secure military bases. The Iran war has proved these bases are now vulnerable.
• Saving Democracy
  Here’s One Thing Joe Manchin Was Right About — In the wake of declining public support for the two major U.S. political parties, a report on an interesting effort to encourage and support third party independent candidates.
• Superpower Conflict
  The New Right’s Grand Strategy After Trump -- How Civilizationism Would Upend America’s Role in the World — An enlightening article about a controversial new social and political philosophy, civilizationism, with thoughts about the geopolitical implications that might follow from its widespread adoption.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Elisha Wiesel: The Death of the Nobel Peace Prize — My father, Elie Wiesel, received the Nobel Peace Prize for ensuring the Holocaust wouldn’t be forgotten. By honoring Navi Pillay, who accused Israel of genocide, the committee has betrayed his legacy.
• Interstate War
  The Makings of a Prewar World — A disturbing analysis of the far-reaching implications of President Trump's recent speech to the United Nations and his defense of a "might makes right" approach to international relations.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  The UN made racism against Jews acceptable. — A review of an important chapter in history -- the 2001 United Nations World Conference Against Racism -- an event that incorporated an exception for antisemitism into the global campaign against racism.
• Immigration
  No, you are not on Indigenous land — The thought-provoking article for those trying to place their society's history of aggression and conquest into a larger context in which aggression and conquest was commonplace.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Polling has become a playground for grifters, liars, and frauds — Disturbing news about the problems facing the polling industry and reason to be more skeptical and selective in deciding what polls offer meaningful insights.
• US Politics
  Barney Frank: Impeach ‘Woke’ — From the late Barney Frank, an argument that political reconciliation in the United States must also include an accounting of the excesses of the woke progressive left.
• Peacebuilding
  Human Rights Watch Insider on Who Holds NGOs to Account — Former Human Rights Watch senior editor Danielle Haas on how NGO reports get made, what happens to staff who dissent, and why she thinks outside oversight is desperately needed.
• Interstate War
  America Is Blundering Toward War With China — It's not enough to be against war. You have to understand the complex chain of events that can lead to war and find ways to break that chain.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  Religious ‘integralists’ on the right, meet your socialist soulmates — They report on religious integralists on the right and the left -- people who are challenging the separation of church and state.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  How Iran Changed War — From Foreign Affairs, the primer on a new word, "precise mass" -- a military technology that will radically change the nature of war, the balance of power, and the degree to which we can all feel secure.
• US Politics
  The American New Right looks like the European old right — When conservatives reject constitutional limits on executive power and foment civil conflict, what exactly are they conserving?
• Saving Democracy
  A Conversation on Defending Democracy With Senator Elissa Slotkin and Anne Applebaum — Senator Elissa Slotkin has been examining the authoritarian playbook used abroad and the lessons that can be taken to protect institutions and rights in America. She talks with Anne Applebaum on what she has learned.

Colleague Activities

Highlighting things that our conflict and peacebuilding colleagues are doing that contribute to efforts to address the hyper-polarization problem.

• Saving Democracy
  Democratic Resistance in Eroding Democracies — The Journal of Democracy and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace have produced a special symposium on democratic resistance in backsliding democracies.
• Peacebuilding
  Peace Intelligence: A New Framework for Peace Education and Preventative Peacebuilding — A white paper introducing Peace Intelligence (PQ), a framework proposing that peace can be understood as a learnable human capability built on five dimensions: Emotional, Social, Cultural, Resolution, and Ethical Intelligence. 
• US Politics
  The Civic Right: Lessons Learned Leading up to the 2026 Midterms — A primary challenge facing constitutional conservatism is not a shortage of thoughtful leaders or constructive ideas. Rather, it is the absence of the civic infrastructure necessary to support those leaders.
• Constructive Communication
  Closing Perception Gaps Strengthens the Whole Democracy Ecosystem — Research shows Americans see political opponents as more extreme than they really are. Learn how closing this 'perception gap' can restore civil discourse.
• Corruption
  “When the Guardrails Erode” Series — This series brings together expert analysis that traces the erosion of anti-corruption guardrails, assesses the risks for democratic governance, and outlines pathways to rebuild or even reinvent these safeguards.
• Trust / Trust Earning
  A Rose-Colored View of Governance & Trust — From the National Civic League, a more positive outlook for the nation as a whole, based on their work in local communities around the country.
• Bridge Building
  The story of NEAD — Narrative engagement across difference is key to building collective power.
• Saving Democracy
  My Hope Trembles: The Fourth Founding Is Accelerating — Convergence for systems transformation through deliberative democracy is becoming vivid to the pillars of our society!
• Saving Democracy
  Democracy is access to meaningful options — A Filipino immigrant to the United States talks about what democracy means to him, and how he has learned what it means.
• Education
  The Smoke and the Fire in Higher Education — Dr. Ashley Rubin examines how subtle political shifts in academic research compromise scholarly standards and erode public trust.
• Saving Democracy
  Democracy on the Brink: America in the Age of Violent Populism — What is happening in America is not primarily a story of extremists seizing control; it is a story of the normalization of violence in the mainstream.
• Trust / Trust Earning
  What Dolly Can Teach Us About Trust — Julie Sweetland with the Frameworks Institute writes about five lessons about trust that can be learned from Dolly Parton.
• Trust / Trust Earning
  The Insight: Americans’ trust in the news media is rising. What’s behind the shift? — AllSides reports on a Gallup poll showing that trust in media is rising and considers why this is happening and what it means.
• Bridge Building
  From Solidarity Wedges to Bridges — Wedges can reveal where relationships need repair, power dynamics need attention, and infrastructure needs strengthening.

News and Opinion

From around the web, more insight into the nature of our conflict problems, limits of business-as-usual thinking, and things people are doing to try to make things better. (Formerly, Beyond Intractability in Context.)

• Progressive Left / Socialism
  Anthropology Has a Truth Problem — A expose highlighting the politicalization of the field of anthropology -- an expose that tells us a lot about why academia has lost the public's trust.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Six-Chart Sunday – Whiplash — Six great charts that remind us, once again, that predictions are often wrong and that we should always be prepared to adapt to changing circumstances.
• Saving Democracy
  Want to Reform Democracy? Start Here. — A report on a proposal for strengthening democracy by changing the way in which we select members of the House of Representatives.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  In the New World Taking Shape, We’re All on Our Own — Part of the New York Times New World Disorder Series, this article provides a heart-wrenching account of the fate of many of the people that the U.S. is deporting.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Douglas Murray: Israel Is Conquering Its Enemies — This article tries to explain the military imperative that has forced Israel to act in ways that so much of the world condemns.
• Social / Economic Complexity
  Time to Consider Becoming a Bricklayer — For a society that doesn't give blue collar trades anywhere near the respect they deserve, an essay suggesting that those trades might offer young people a more promising future.
• Progressive Left / Socialism
  The Literary World’s D.E.I. Checklist — For those who thought that programs are just aimed at leveling the playing field and giving everyone a fair chance, a case study of how far the literary world has strayed from genuine equity.
• Constructively Addressing Complex Issues
  Roland Fryer on the Cost of Telling the Truth — The acclaimed economist has spent his career studying incentives. Now he’s built one of his own, a prize aimed at scholars sitting on findings they’re too afraid to publish.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Tony Blair: Britain’s Fastest-Growing Party Has an Anti-Jewish Problem — From a man who served as the United Kingdom's Prime Minister for a decade, an alarming article about how antisemitism is becoming a prerequisite for membership in the UK's environmental "Green Party."
• US Politics
  A Democratic Senate Should Adopt Secret Impeachment Ballots on a Priority Basis — An interesting idea for helping the Senate make wiser and more deliberative decisions concerning whether the President should be impeached in our highly charged political environment.
• Saving Democracy
  Shouldn’t Every Race Be Close? — An explanation of the median voter theorem -- a dynamic that explains why elections tend to be relatively close and why campaigns tend to emphasize more moderate positions.
• Developing a Unifying Vision
  The Far-Left Firebrand Who Wants to Upend France’s Politics—and Cancel Its Debt — For those who may have thought that our politics can't get more extreme, report from France on a politician who proposes a considerably more radical agenda.
• US Politics
  America’s Elected Officials Are Living in Fear — A report on the far-reaching impacts of often vague, but still terrifying, threats now being levied against our political leaders.
• US Politics
  Third Parties Are On the Rise. America Could Be Next. — Be careful what you hope for, you might get it. This essay raises tough issues that the politically homeless ought to consider as they look for a third party that they can support.
• Left / Right Conflict
  DEI Demeans Minorities — Reflections on recent essays that argue that many of the ways in which we try to help racial minorities wind up hurting, rather than helping.
• Saving Democracy
  The Ph.D. Job Crisis Is a Needed Market Correction — An economic analysis of what happens when universities produce far more PhDs than the society can profitably employ.
• US Politics
  Trump Makes Republicans More Racist and Democrats Less So — A Thomas Edsall compilation of what social scientists think the ongoing political turmoil is doing to public attitudes regarding racism.
• Left / Right Conflict
  When White People Like Hannah Gann Pretend to Be Black — For a society that many still think of as deeply racist, an interesting report on the motivations of those whose identity crosses racial boundaries.
• Israel, Hamas, Iran, and Related Wars
  Palestine After the Two-State Solution — In the wake of the death of the "two-state solution," a proposed pathway toward a Palestinian state that might actually work.
• Education
  Has Administrative Bloat Reached a Breaking Point? — An example of the kind of self-criticism that is so desperately needed in higher education. This one asks hard questions about the dramatically expanded role of university administrators.
• Superpower Conflict
  Rewiring the Arsenal of Democracy — A Foreign Affairs article that starts to think about how the United States (and other societies) can protect themselves from swarms of cheap, precision guided weapons that are about to become widely available (even to small non state actors).

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About the MBI Newsletters

Two or three times a week, Guy and Heidi Burgess, the BI Directors, share some of our thoughts on political hyper-polarization and related topics. We also share essays from our colleagues and other contributors, and every week or so, we devote one newsletter to annotated links to outside readings that we found particularly useful relating to U.S. hyper-polarization, threats to peace (and actual violence) in other countries, and related topics of interest. Each Newsletter is posted on BI, and sent out by email through Substack to subscribers. You can sign up to receive your copy here and find the latest newsletter here or on our BI Newsletter page, which also provides access to all the past newsletters, going back to 2017.

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