The Crane Brinton Effect — Why Revolutions Fail

Newsletter #57 —October 11, 2022

By Heidi Burgess and Guy Burgess

The Crane Brinton Effect — Why Revolutions Fail

Amid today's pervasive political discontent, activists on both the left and the right are coming to the conclusion that the existing system is so corrupt, unjust, and dysfunctional that the only way to make things right is by overthrowing the existing order with some kind of political revolution (that will, hopefully, remain nonviolent).  Before fully embracing these revolutionary theories of social change, however, we ought to understand and make sure that we have some way of avoiding what we call "Crane Brinton Effect." While this idea was initially based on Brinton's 1965 Anatomy of Revolution, we have adapted it somewhat to current times. The Brinton Effect explains in simple, but we think quite compelling, terms how revolutions, that start by offering people a way to escape from oppressive authoritarian rule, wind up betraying their initial goals and ultimately produce (often after a period of terrible violence) just another oppressive tyranny.

In Brinton's formulation, the effect originates in societies that are suffering under an oppressive, authoritarian regime that is universally reviled and only maintains its hold on power through brute force and a fearful, subservient, and resentful population. Then something happens that leads people to believe that the regime will be powerless to stop a widespread revolt. This can quickly lead to an uprising that, if they are right about the weakness of the regime, can lead to the quick collapse of the system of government that almost everybody hates.

In the ensuing power vacuum, however, it quickly becomes apparent that the various revolutionary factions don't agree on what should come next and how the innumerable disputes associated with everyday governance should be resolved. This, then, leads to chaos and increasingly violent conflict as various factions fight for control. In the absence of broadly-supported, nonviolent dispute resolution mechanisms, these conflicts are usually resolved when the most ruthless and violent faction ultimately seizes power and returns society to a new, but equally oppressive, authoritarian regime. Brinton used the French Revolution (which led to Napoleon) and the Russian Revolution (which led to Lenin and Stalin. For more recent examples, look at the revolutions accompanying the fall of the Soviet Union or the Arab Spring

The same principle, unfortunately, applies to nonviolent political revolutions. As people increasingly decide that they don't trust society's existing dispute handling mechanisms (like elections and the courts) you can get widespread efforts to circumvent those institutions and the rule of law upon which they are based. This results in increasingly bitter struggles for political power in which democratic norms and taboos are abandoned in favor of increasingly dirty tricks and the increasing possibility of violence. 

In the U.S., both the left and the right are already a good way down this path. On the right, it has become politically untenable to assert that President Biden fairly won the 2020 election. In fact, lack of confidence in the fairness of the electoral process has led many Republicans to refuse to commit to accepting an unfavorable outcome in the 2022 election.  On the left, there is widespread alarm over actions being taken by Republicans that Democrats believe would make future elections unfair. In short, agreement on how to hold free and fair elections is collapsing rapidly. 

The politicalization of the judiciary is another area in which trust in democratic institutions Is collapsing. Increasingly extreme tactics are being used to seat judges who are selected because their judicial philosophies that are expected to yield politically favorable decisions for the appointing side. Also contributing to fear and distrust is the fact that both the left and the right are trying to limit free speech to speech that they approve. The right is trying to ban books that teach progressive views on race and gender, while the left is trying to repress any criticism of those views as disinformation or hate. 

These and related acts are combining to shatter people's faith in the ability of democratic institutions to make wise and equitable decisions. Few people believe that their votes count, nor do they believe that their interests and needs are being listened to or addressed. The result is a giant feedback loop drawing people down, not only into increased levels of hate, but also the increased use of extra-legal power strategies that are increasingly seen as the only viable way to protect their vital interests. 

As faith in democracy erodes, it is creating fertile ground for aspiring authoritarians who promise to use strong-arm tactics to protect their constituents from the increasingly dehumanized "enemy" on the other side of the political divide.  This is the point where hyper-polarization transforms relatively mild calls for political revolution into something closer to the horrors imagined by Crane Brinton.

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