Distrust and Lack of Confidence That People Will Live up to an Agreement

3. Factors That Make Conflict Intractable

One of the obstacles to reaching peace agreements and, indeed, much smaller-scale interpersonal or business agreements is that disputants often don't trust each other, fearing that if they give up something, their concession will not be reciprocated, or the opposing side(s) will violate any agreement that is made. That certainly is a major problem in the still ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as both sides have violated agreements many times. In fact, October 7, 2023 was perpetrated during a cease fire agreement! Since I didn't know the details of the various Israeli or Palestinian violations, or other examples of distrust leading to the failure of agreements, I asked ChatGPT to come up with some examples, with citations. It provided the following:

1. Camp David Summit (July 2000 – Israeli-Palestinian negotiations)

At the U.S.-brokered Camp David Summit, President Bill Clinton brought together Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat. Talks collapsed due to irreconcilable differences over Jerusalem, refugees, borders, and sovereignty issues. Underlying the failure was deep distrust: both parties feared being trapped into concessions they couldn’t later withdraw, or blamed if the talks failed. Palestinian negotiators described the process as chaotic and felt set up under pressure. Israeli and American officials also questioned Arafat’s commitment to finality, while Palestinians doubted Israel’s ability to implement proposed terms. PON Harvard Law+11Watershed Associates+11PON Harvard Law+11Wikipedia+1

2. 2013–2014 Israeli–Palestinian Peace Talks

When peace talks resumed under U.S. mediation in 2013, they quickly unraveled. The Palestinian Authority had offered to pause international statehood campaigns—an overture seen as conciliatory—but Israel’s release of some prisoners (which it had previously promised under past agreements) was viewed skeptically. Many Palestinians saw the slow implementation as a tactic to undermine trust. Tensions escalated with Israeli settlement expansion, which Palestinians believed was a way to "poison the atmosphere" and preempt any viable deal. Eventually, the talks collapsed amid mutual accusations of bad faith. Wikipedia

3. Triple Alliance Negotiations Pre-World War II

In the 1930s, the USSR attempted to negotiate a collective security pact with Britain and France to counter Nazi Germany. However, deep-seated mistrust marred the talks—Soviet leaders saw Western actions primarily as veiled attempts to drag the USSR into conflict on terms that favored Britain and France. Historians note that the West’s inconsistent approach and appeasement policies only heightened Soviet skepticism and ultimately prevented a meaningful alliance. Wikipedia

4. Paris Peace Accords (1973 – Vietnam War)

The 1973 Paris Peace Accords intended to end the Vietnam War through mutual ceasefires and prisoner exchanges. Yet both North and South Vietnam—along with their allies—began violating the terms almost immediately. North Vietnam violated ceasefires by reinforcing troops and launching offensives; South Vietnam and the U.S. failed to enforce compliance. Neither side trusted the other to abide by the agreement, leading to its swift collapse and the resumption of war. Wikipedia

Our Assessment

While we generally try to use more authoritative sources than Wikipedia, these examples seem credible, and even if the details are not accurate, they illustrate the nature of the problem.

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