Most of the fundamental ideas of science are essentially simple, and may, as a rule, be expressed in a language comprehensible to everyone.
- Albert Einstein
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Send by emailUncertainty: Additional Resources
These references supplement the Knowledge Base Essay, Uncertainty.
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Additional Explanations of the Underlying Concepts: Online (Web) Sources Environmental Decision Making and Multilateral Environmental Agreements (common factors quote). Available at: http://www.unu.edu/inter-linkages/eminent/papers/WG2/Benedick.pdf [Backup Link] A notable quote from the U.N. University paper regarding scientific complexity on a global scale as is the case with many environmental problems. Inability to Deal with Uncertainty. Available at: http://www.colorado.edu/conflict/peace/problem/uncertan.htm [Backup Link] A brief article describing how risks are difficult to evaluate and how risk estimates complicate conflict decision-making. Introduction to Probability. Math Forum at Drexel University. Available at: http://mathforum.org/dr.math/faq/faq.prob.intro.html [Backup Link] This page presents a brief introduction to probability. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty. Available at: Primary Link [Backup Link] Uncertainty and risk are academically rich topics, so there is an enormous amount of literature available on the subjects. Among the many journals that collect research relevant to the role of risk and uncertainty in decision-making, this journal is particularly focused on the subject. Strategies for Dealing with Environmental Risk Conflicts. Available at: Primary Link [Backup Link] This paper examines intractable conflicts by focusing on the problem of technical risk and uncertainty, including the fact that uncertainty is often unavoidable and how parties react to uncertainty and possible risks. Offline (Print) Sources Keeney, Ralph et al. Acceptable Risk. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1984. This book describes how difficult it is to determine what risks are "acceptable" and how to make decisions in light of risks. Primary Link Rowe, William D. An Anatomy of Risk. Malabar, FL: Krieger Publishing Company, 1988. Part of the "Wiley Series on Systems Engineering and Analysis", this book examines in detail how risks are analyzed and estimates calculated. Also includes critical commentary on how risk estimation can go wrong. 1987 version reprinted with corrections. Primary Link [Backup Link] Fischhoff, Baruch. "Managing Risk Perceptions." Issues in Science and Technology 2:1, 1985. A discussion of the psychological factors involved in risk perception and how to manage them. Freudenburg, William. Perceived Risk, Real Risk: Social Science and the Art of Probabilistic Risk Assessment, vol.242 . A discussion of the social factors in risk assessment. Anderson, Elizabeth, ed. Risk Analysis: An International Journal. Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing, 2003. Uncertainty and risk are academically rich topics, so there is an enormous amount of literature available on the subjects. Among the many journals that collect research relevant to the role of risk and uncertainty in decision-making, this journal is particularly focused on the subject. Primary Link [Backup Link] O'Brien, David. What Process is Due? Courts and Science-Policy Disputes. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1987. When Reasons Are Not Enough: Regulating Benzene in "What Process is Due?" describes the legal battles over worker's exposure to benzene, ultimately resulting in the current U.S. standard of 1PPM. The author questions how valid decision-making is when, in the absence of clear scientific evidence, the process becomes idealogical/philosophical. Examples Illustrating this Topic: Online (Web) Sources Poncelet, Eric C. and Gary Widman. Better Together: Mediating an End to an Ecological Risk Assessment Dispute at Vandenberg Air Force Base. Available at: http://mediate.com/articles/poncelet.cfm [Backup Link] An article regarding disputes over the environmental risks imposed by activities at the USAF Vandenburg Air Force base. Conway, George and Nozomi Kishi. Conflict Risk Assessment Report: Cambodia, Indonesia, and The Philippines. CIFP. Available at: http://www.carleton.ca/cifp/docs/CIFPConflictRiskAssessment.pdf [Backup Link] An example of a risk assessment report illustrating the host of factors that mix in complex ways in conflicts. Environmental Decision Making and Multilateral Environmental Agreements. Available at: http://www.unu.edu/inter-linkages/eminent/papers/WG2/Benedick.pdf [Backup Link] An article discussing the complex scientific and international factors involved in forming environmental agreements between different countries. Offline (Print) Sources Huber, P., K. Foster and D. Bernstein. Phantom Risk: Scientific Inference and the Law. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1993. This book examines two intersecting problems regarding risk assessment and tort law. The first problem is the disparity between the ease with which a controversy about a suspected occupational or environmental hazard can begin and the difficulty in resolving the nature of the connection, if any, between the suspected hazard and a health effect. The second problem is the confusion which results when such proposed hazards are brought in as grounds for litigation. Primary Link |