Book Summary of Acceptable Risk by Baruch Fischhoff, Sarah Lichtenstein, Paul Slovis, Stephen L. Derby, Ralph L. Keeney
Citation:
Acceptable Risk, Baruch Fischhoff, Sarah Lichtenstein, Paul Slovis, Stephen L. Derby, Ralph L. Keeney, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981) 185 pp.
This Book Summary written by: T.A. O'Lonergan, Conflict Research Consortium
Acceptable Risk is required by Dr. Guy Burgess and Professor Charles
Lester for ARSC 5010/7010. Fischhoff et al offer useful information for those
concerned with an acceptable risk problem by first defining of the
problem and then asserting it to be a decision problem. They acknowledge the
difficulties with which acceptable risk problems are resolved and
attribute these difficulties to what they term 'five generic complexities'.
These complexities are: uncertainty about the problem definition, difficulties
in assessing the facts, difficulties in assessing values, uncertainty about the
human element, and difficulties in assessing decision quality.
Acceptable Risk provides assistance for those searching for
approaches to acceptable risk problems by outlining seven criteria for
evaluating the acceptability of approaches to such problems. The authors next
discuss how professionals determine acceptable risk and the problems
associated with professional judgment, including the adequacy of
professional judgment for resolving such problems. The authors next
offer similar analyses for boot-strapping and formal analysis as
methods for resolving acceptable risk questions. Formal analysis covers
decision analysis and cost-benefit analysis and variants
thereof. Fischhoff et al engage in a comparison of approaches and examine in
depth the tool of global ratings, and offer advice on choosing an appropriate
approach.
The final three chapters offer assistance to those engaged in acceptable
risk decision making and research. The authors summarize their findings
about acceptable risk questions while offering their recommendations.
They offer recommendations for: the technical community, public involvement, the
marketplace, and government. The concluding chapter proposes areas for future
research. The authors offer reasons for pursuing research to reduce uncertainty
about: problem definition, facts, values, the human element and decision
quality.
Acceptable Risk offers an in-depth analysis of the acceptable
risk problems and offers a systematic approach toward their resolution.
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