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Fact-Finding Amid Irreducible Uncertainties

BI Article
Uncertainty
When a conflict involves complex elements and unknowns, it is often a significant reason why the conflict becomes intractable in the first place. This essay offers suggestions for dealing with diversity.

BI Article
Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty
Unavoidable risks and uncertainties make wise decision-making especially difficult. These difficulties are compounded by cognitive traps that lead us to believe that we have certainty when we don't. A better approach is to remain flexible and monitor changing conditions so that we can adapt quickly.

BI Article
Fact, Value, Lie, or Uncertainty? How Do We Tell?
Sorting out "real facts" from "fake facts" gets more difficult all the time. But there are ways to do it. And it matters. Because facts can "bite you," even if you don't believe they are true.

BI Article
Living with Uncertainty in the COVID-19 Era
A succinct explanation of things we should all be thinking about as we struggle to deal with the uncertainties of the COVID-19 era.

BI Article
Glenda Eoyang: Crush the Arrogance of Certainty
COVID-19 and our response to it is a complex adaptive system. To respond effectively, we need to adapt to uncertainty.

BI Article
Matt Legge: COVID-19 and Responses to Uncertainty
An article explaining how uncertainty molds our response to the pandemic and other social challenges--and what should be done about it.

BI Article
From the Hyper-Polarization Discussion: Anne Leslie: Embracing Ambiguity
A summary of an excellent talk IBM security expert gave to a conflict resolution audience on dealing with complexity and uncertainty.

Colleague Activities
Leaning in to Conflict and Leaning into Uncertainty
A website documenting and expanding upon three online conversations on conflict, complexity, and uncertainty.

Colleague Activities
Leadership for Navigating Uncertainty
Thoughts about responsive, collaborative, and disruptive-emergent leadership, and how we might use this understanding of these leadership forms to ensure we lean into deep, durable and transformative change.

News and Opinion
Surrendering to Uncertainty

News and Opinion
Catastrophes of the 21st Century