The Illusion of Simplicity

3. Factors That Make Conflict Intractable

In Brief

It also suggests there are simple solutions -- either to "get rid of" the other side, which almost never is going to happen, or undertake one process—mediation, dialogue, litigation,, etc.— and then the conflict will be solved. If it is truly intractable, a dispute might be solved, but the conflict will continue.

We have pointed out elsewhere that most intractable conflicts are very complex, but most people, by nature, tend to dislike complexity, so they try to simplify complex situations into simple narratives. The easiest and most satisfying such narrative in conflict is that "we" are the "good side" and "they" are the "bad side," or, if conflicts get highly polarized, as the political conflict in the United States has done, many people go so far as define the other side as "evil." We assume that it is their choices and their behavior, that is causing our own problems, not our own choices or our own behavior. Not only is that usually false (on all sides), but such over-simplification is problematic for other reasons.

First, it tends to spiral. If we blame "them" for everything that goes wrong, they will likewise respond by blaming "us." Once we define them as "evil," we do not need to listen to what they have to say, indeed, we shouldn't. We should block them out, or even try to silence them. If we lash out at them about their misguided or evil beliefs, they will lash back—sometimes escalating the rhetoric, perhaps even adding in a negative behavior. These tit-for-tat exchanges can continue, sometimes escalating to full-blown violence, even war.

Another problem with such over-simplification is that it assumes that the solution to "the problem," whatever the problem is, is to just "get rid of" the other side, or subdue them, over power them, or, perhaps, convince them that they are wrong and you are right. None of those approaches is likely to be possible, or to work, because the other side thinks the same way. So the situation is like an equally-matched tug-of-war. But unlike tug-of-war, in which one side eventually prevails, and the game is over, the other side in these contests gets up, dusts themselves off, and comes right back to the fight. So the fight goes on and on, often getting worse, not better, for all sides.

Another aspect of the illusion of simplicity is that there is one solution to the problem. "Hammer's law" — "to a hammer, all the world is a nail," "can be extended to peacebuilders and conflict resolvers who assume that their approach is "the answer" to polarization, or intractable conflicts, or other such problems. So, for instance, "to some mediators, all conflicts are mediatable." Dialogue facilitators sometimes assert that all that is needed to diminish polarization is dialogue. Lawyers think they should take cases to court. Legislators want to pass new laws. And so on and so on. Actually effective responses to intractable conflict require all of the above and much more. Later in this guide we will lay out (as of now) 52 different roles that are needed in addition to the actions of many different independent citizen actors.

So both disputant and would-be disputant responders tend to harbor illusions of simplicity, which almost always are unfounded, and do more harm than good.