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Introduction:
Wendell Jones, an Ombudsman at Sandia National Lab, talks about approaching
human conflict as a complex adaptive system. He suggests that the kinds of systems
that thrive and adapt successfully are the ones that employ both cooperative
and competitive strategies. When conflict develops, this affects the whole
system. Intervenors cannot simply divide the conflict into separate components and work
on each of these pieces separately. Understanding and addressing conflict dynamics
requires a more holistic and integrative approach.
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This rough transcript provides a text alternative to audio. We apologize for occasional errors and unintelligible sections (which are marked with ???).
Complex Adaptive Systems
Wendell Jones
Ombudsman, Sandia National Lab
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A: Complex
adaptive systems.
...
It is the notion
that systems as a whole produce outcomes, results, and behaviors that don't
originate in any one person. I mean that is a powerful way of looking at
collaboration. It turns out those kinds of systems, the ones that thrive and
adapt successfully, use both cooperative and collaborative strategies, as well
as some competitive strategies. We learn how to intimately mix those two types
of strategies to some shared beneficial outcome for the whole system.
...
Q: Can you paint me a single picture, or provide me with an analogy so that I
can understand how a biological system, where there is cooperation and
competition to come up with an output, can be analogous to a social situation
involving human beings?
A: The comparison I'll make is to an ant colony. The good thing is that humans
aren't ants. We have much cognitive conscious powers to make choices. The couple
of points I'll make by looking at an ant colony as a complex adaptive system is
the notion that any individual ant is really not very smart at all. They respond
very simply and very directly to chemical signals. They are tightly
pre-programmed. They don't make a lot of free-will kinds of decisions. Yet, the colony is an incredibly sophisticated thing in which there are
complex strategies in which there is cooperation among the ants. There is even
cooperation among adjoining colonies some of the time. Other times, it is pretty
brutal survival of the fittest sort of strategy, and this was deployed in
certain parts as well as strategies to grow and take over other ant colonies. So
if you watch an ant colony, many things are collaborative. Many of us who have
watched ant colonies work can see a lot of collaboration there, and there is
some fairly brutal competition that is mixed with that.
Eventually, you end up with this larger system, which is much smarter than
any individual ant. There is no smart ant that knows tactics, strategy to combat
with other ant colonies. There is no smart ant that knows how to build consensus
and collaboration among the ants, yet the whole system is able to do that. The
gap between that sort of behavior and humans is huge. There is an example of
where in that kind of a system you see competition and collaboration.
The other place you'll see it is that if you were to interview jazz
musicians. A jazz ensemble is a nice example of a complex adaptive system in the
sense that the players have certain basic rules, chromatic progressions that they all
agree to before hand. In the midst of those simple rules they co-create
something that's not predictable, that has a whole system, an ensemble sort of
sound, history, and flavor to it that no one person has thought of and then
instructed the others in. If you talk to a jazz musician, they'll tell you that
in the midst of playing jazz that some of the time they are collaborating with
their cohorts in the ensemble and some of the time they are competing. They move
fluidly from cooperative and collaborative strategies in the moment to some
competitive strategies. The best of that, in terms of competition, is that they
are not destructive, damaging competitions. There isn't a jazz musician that
wouldn't tell you that, "oh no, I get caught in competition with one of my
ensemble partners." This doesn't do damage to the ensemble, but they are
certainly competitive.
Q: Will understanding these types of relationships, and understanding the
systems help us to deal with and manage conflict?
A: I think one of the most powerful shifts when looking at human systems as
truly complex and adaptive systems is that it calls for us to let go of our
traditional, our thoroughly embedded, educational notions that come around the
words like analysis. All of us educated in the 400 years since the Enlightenment
in the early 1600's have been trained, and believe in the power of what is known
as reductionist-analytical thinking. That is, if I've got a big complicated
thing, the way I better understand it is that I break it down into its pieces. I study
the pieces. Then I hook the pieces back up, and that way I understand the whole.
Q: You take the engine apart of the car, put it back together and now you
know how it works.
A: That is the analytical-reductionist approach. It is incredibly powerful.
Virtually everything around us in the West is a result of that. The dilemma is
that if you listen to the notion of what a complex adaptive system is you find
out that it is a system in which individual parts are making their own local
decisions, producing outcomes that are characteristic of the whole. You cannot
take that apart. If you look at an ant colony, you can't take that apart. There
are no headquarters' ants and supply ants. You can't take apart ant resources.
You can't take it apart, study the parts and put it back together. The whole
responds in a particular way that is characteristic of the whole. That is all
you can do.
So our tendency to take any complicated conflict and want to break it apart
and help the people involved solve it by solving it piece by piece has some
utility. It has clearly worked, but it is really an approximation to the whole.
In what's called intractable conflict, people end up frustrated because in the
end what is clear to them in those kinds of conflicts is that everything is
intimately connected to everything else. Everyone's effort to break it apart in
pieces and work on the pieces separately and then to put it back together is the
analytical approach. What we find is we started a discussion on a piece part and
discovered that we could not discuss this separate from this other thing.
Everything is hooked to everything when we have to work on it. Realizing that at
best breaking something down into parts and working on parts is an
approximation, sometimes a useful approximation, but it is always an
approximation.
Sometimes the system is so tightly coupled that it will not yield to break it
apart into pieces. We've got to develop a whole new set of tools on how to
impact whole systems using a basic philosophical approach that is more holistic
and integrative than the traditional one which is reductionist and analytical. I
think that at looking at conflict through the lens of them being complex-adaptive systems as opposed to complicated systems requires us to make a major
shift away from most all the tools we've developed.
Most all the tools we've developed are ones to help us in that analysis,
conflict analysis, setting priorities, building a smaller simpler table. I
mean you can look through the literature and tell that we really do want our old
analytical tools to work, and they have. We shouldn't fail to use them when they
work, but I think that the notions of complexity science give us a whole new way to
look at conflict in these kinds of systems that will open up the use of new
interventions, and new tools that we wouldn't come to without taking a really
radically different look at these kinds of conflicts.
...
Q: It sounds like quite a formidable task to come up with social science,
conflict management tools that can deal with a whole conflict system at the same
time without breaking it apart. Is that feasible?
A: Sure it is. The fact that you and I are so deeply embedded in believing
that the only way to get our arms around a complicated thing is to break it
apart, to imagine giving up the hope that we won't be able to even break a
problem apart is pretty daunting. We don't have another way to look at the
problem. Folks are working hard right now, and will over the next twenty or
thirty years to develop the ways of intersecting these sorts of systems.
Thirty years from now people will say, "Well of course we know how to do that."
...
Q: I sort of understand the ideas. I'm looking for a picture, an example that
I can sink my teeth into so I can say, okay I'm getting it. Do you have
something like that for me?
A: It may not be as focused as you'd like. I'll give you two. One that is
human and one that is not. The one that is not human is the visual impact that a
school of fish or a flock of birds has. You sit and you watch a flock of birds
fly. They produce these incredibly ornate, never repeating motions in the air.
To our eyes they look incredibly coordinated. I mean think of the work you would
have to do to humans to behave with such coordinated action. The fact is there
is no coordinating bird. There is no drum major bird that directs them. Instead
what you have are individual birds with very simple programming. This
programming says don't hit your neighbor, don't hit an obstacle, and fly in a
certain range. Not too close and not too far from the birds around you. Out of
those simple rules used by hundreds of birds you get incredibly complicated and
never repeatable behavior. That is so hard for us to comprehend based on our
education. Those simple rules, used by thousands of individuals, produce a
system that does incredibly complex, complicated and unpredictable behavior.
That is a great example of a complex adaptive system.
On the other side, lets look at the cell phone phenomenon. The people who
introduce the first cell phone, never in their wildest dreams predicted that
there would be cameras and the web. The web didn't even exist when they started
with cell phones, and that is an example of the fact that you can have a small
change in the cell phone. The people who envisioned it saw it as a limited
substitute for hard-wired, land-line phone. What has happened is as tens of
thousands, millions of people have taken that and adjusted their own lives
around it. Cell phone technology has taken on a life that no one could have
possibly predicted.
The other characteristic of these kinds of systems is that you get responses
that can be explosively huge that no one could have possibly predicted. Those
are two examples of how these systems work. The exciting thing for us, as
dispute resolvers, is that we are a third party that enters a complicated system
that might have millions of disputants. How in the world can a few people impact
an outcome of millions? The truth is, in these kinds of systems small inputs can
create or stimulate huge changes. That is something we should celebrate and
leave open. Now, not all small changes or small inputs create large outputs, but
some can. The exciting thing is that this is the nature of these systems that
a few people can make a huge difference beyond their small numbers.
Q: The butterfly effect?
A: Give up the hope of predicting it. If you want to use the butterfly effect
you have to know that the notion is we don't know which flap of the wings of
which butterfly might create the hurricane. What we should do is release
hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of butterflies and see what happens. As
dispute resolvers, we shouldn't worry about what the one intervention is that
will make a difference. We should try hundreds of smallish sorts of things that
are thought out and we hope have a chance of having a positive impact. We are
not looking for the one small intervention that will work, we want to have a lot
of interventions that we hope might work and then we will see what happens.
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